Catching Up

Been a while since I've posted, figured I'm overdue. Not that I have that much to say.

Bonitis and the artists formerly known as DW3CP4 summed up the Hawks playoff experience fairly well -- rarely has a fan base felt so happy about a 34 point loss. I was at Game Six and it was arguably the greatest experience of my life, easily my greatest sporting experience. No matter what else we take away from sports, it's moments like Joe's threes in games 3 and 6 that remind us why we live and die with these teams. All those moments of suffering are washed away in those split seconds. If anything, that much suck really makes those moments more precious.

Speaking of the Hawks, Billy Knight was announced as "retiring" just a few hours ago. I can't think of a more embattled GM over the last couple of years since Knight. He's certainly been up and down: great job drafting Smith as late he did, good signing with Joe Johnson, and you certainly can't complain about trading your four worst players for Mike Bibby. However, his bads have been bad. I'm willing to ignore the Chris Paul pick (this has been played to death enough and, remember, we were one of three teams to skip over him -- Marvin was the pick, according to analysts. Drafting is not an exact science), however, not signing Smith (and, to a lesser extent, Childress) to extensions last summer was especially egregious. Our team took on a lot of cap by trading for Bibby, which is good, but done to make up for another Knight mistake (signing Speedy Claxton). Also, Shelden Williams at #5? I know what I said about drafting not being an exact science, but it's much easier to know a bust is going to be (Shelden) then predicting the super studs (Paul). That pick was simply inexcusable and he should have been fired a while ago for that, not signing Smith, and the Speed Claxton signing. Good thing he got Bibby before that.

Of course, the greatest thing Billy Knight tried to do never happened: firing Mike Woodson. Stay tuned, because there's no way this is resolved yet. I don't think Knight leaving is necessarily a great omen for Woodson. A new GM will want to make his impact immediately and, since we don't have a first round pick this year, I can't think of a better way for him to do that by hiring his own coach (which would also help us convince Josh Smith to stay, an added bonus). I'll let bonitis and Grundel go over the possible candidates later, but, suffice it to say, finding someone better than Woodson should not be hard.

Speaking of dying, it'd be nice if the Braves bullpen could stay healthy. However, I am still encouraged so far -- the offense is simply on fire and the starting pitching, despite going through injuries (Sigh. Smoltz.), still leads the NL in ERA. Sure, I don't expect Chipper to bat .400 or Jair Jurrjens to give us a quality start every time out, but, with this many players performing beyond expectations, it's a good sign that even when someone starts to slump (coughcough Kotsay coughocugh), there will be other players there to pick them up. It's still way too early to be scoreboard watching, however, the fact we are only two games back after blowing so many late games because of incompetent bullpen pitching (and managing of said bullpen) is very encouraging, since the bullpen will improve as guy's roles are established (Resop = only when we're winning by eight or more) and when we get some arms back.

Since apparently our tags are on "use-it-or-lose-it" status, I'd like to relate to you, dear readers, the story of Tantalus. Tantalus, a son of Zeus, invited the gods to dinner and, in order to impress them, cooked his own son. Sure, he was delicious, but, the gods were kind of pissed and they sent him to the Underworld where, for the rest of his life, he was doomed to a fate where he would always be reaching for food and water, only for it to move just out of reach as he got close. This si where we get the word "tantalizing" from -- something that looks good, but is beyond reach. This story of always trying and always failing (and also of false appearances) seems applicable to Greg Norton.

OK, that's kind of a loose fit, but, the "Greek Tragedy" label is too important to get lost in the shuffle.

Requiem

Was this the least negative fan reaction to a game seven slaughter in the history of sports? I mean, think about it. The Atlanta Hawks lost by 34 points. They were never in it. They didn't bring the hustle, the heart. The team was flat out embarrassed. But how did you react? I tipped my hat and offered an appreciative golf clap. Even Mark Bradley (always ready with the vitriol) was soft and optimistic. If watching the games didn't make it clear enough, this placid reaction illustrates just how improbable and exciting those three wins were. Ultimately, this series left me with two main thoughts going forward.

1. The Optimism. This series stuffed Hawks fans full with amazing memories and overwhelming emotion. I was lucky enough to attend two home games (3 and 6), and I will remember those games for the rest of my life. I thought game 3 was incredible, but game 6 was transcendent. The atmosphere was more intense than anything I've ever experienced, and it was flat-out euphoria by the end. Joe's performance in game 4 was unforgettable. That shot still haunts me. How many informed fans thought the Hawks would win a game? I regretfully acknowledge that a five game series was my hopeful ceiling. They didn't pull it off to the fullest, but they did shock the world. They proved that the talent on the roster was not some mirage seen by playoff-starved fools like me. I've seen what Josh Smith can do when he doesn't launch ill-advised treys. I've seen what can happen when the young, athletic Hawks get out and run, play aggressively, and take it to the free throw line. Mike Bibby may not be the answer, but I'm still confident that Acie can ball. He just needs the opportunity to develop and learn. If (big if) we keep the Joshes, with a year of Bibby/developing Acie, this team can be special. I'm not going to go crazy and call for titles or anything like that, but 37 wins? This series erases all doubt that this team is talented enough to take it to the next level, well past 37 wins. Unfortunately, it's a lot more complicated than that, which brings me to my second point.
2. The Indictment. Did this team suddenly transform into some supernatural being? Were they hiding this deadly arsenal just to retain the element of surprise? Hell no. Honestly, looking at the games we won in the series, the Hawks didn't play that well. They showed the talent, yes, but they pulled it off with some devilish concoction of passion, luck, and unrepeatable bursts of amazing. I watched many, many Hawks games this season. With few exceptions, I saw the same thing: a pile of powerful raw materials that was never shaped into a coherent machine. In 89 games (89 f'in games! not even counting previous seasons!), a legitimate, stable offensive system never appeared. Even on defense, players often looked lost--missed assignments, missed rotations, spurts of gift-wrapped offensive rebounds. Mike Woodson is a terrible coach. It is criminal how long he has been at the helm. Billy Knight is not a very good general manager. He has made some reprehensible decisions, but he has assembled a competitive roster (ignoring the lack of a bench for a moment). Most importantly, he has wanted to fire Mike Woodson for months. The Hawks upper management is clearly the product of some incestuous beast relationship years ago. This litter of narcissistic, blind fools might actually retain "Coach" Woodson. That scares me to death. The three amazing (there's that word again) playoff wins should have finally sealed Woodson's coffin. Somehow the first 9,997 nails (estimating) did not keep the lid down, but this must end now. Another year of Woodson will prevent this team from taking a step up. The Hawks won three playoff home games in spite of their coach. I hope the check-signers recognize this unavoidable truth and send the shaved gentleman* on his way.

Don't let my fears sully the celebration of a great series. Dwell on the optimism, not the indictment. I feel strongly about what I have said, but Woodson's tenure is well out of our hands (unless Atlanta Spirit reads this blog! shout out to my homeboys in the suits!). We do ourselves no good to agonize over decisions that we must accept.

*I say gentleman with no jest. I just trashed Mike Woodson and called for his head, but he was always respectful and mostly honorable. Other than a few back-handed remarks about coming out flat, Woodson never publicly called out his young players. Ironically, these remarks about preparedness only served to drive a few more nails in his own coffin. Still, he can go out like a man.

Game 7

Team Zalad is going to be having a collective heart attack during the entire game, so I'll spew my thoughts now.

Here it is: if we play like we did in Boston this entire season, bye-bye Shock The World. So how can we win the greatest victory in the history of athletic competition? Simple, two ways:
1. Play like the game is at Phillips arena. Replicate everything that we did right at home and repeat nothing we did on the road, period. In fact, it may be effective strategy if the players were just told to play the exact opposite way of how they would have otherwise. The Hawks are such a horrible road team that, yeah, they can be confident in their abilities and focus, but unless they radically change the way they approach and prepare for road games, esp. in a hostile environment during the playoffs, it's just hard to imagine these young players making up the minus-20 average points scored away from Phillip during this series.
2. Right before gametime, film Zaza in his Rocky hoodie going into the Celtics locker room and beating up every Celtics player, with emphasis on Cassell and Pierce. Then somehow switch that film with the motivational video the Celtics personnel prepared for the game.

Only if both of these things happen do the Hawks stand a chance. But you know what, after being there for games 3 and 7 and seeing game 4 on TV, I truly believe anything is possible with these guys. Their will to win games has been inspiring and a joy to witness. I just hope somebody, anybody, found a way to carry all of this inspiration to Beantown. As the greatest motivational speaker ever once said, "WE GO TO GAME 7, BABY!! GAME 7! GAME SEVENNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!"



Injury note: I hope Marvin is completely healthy to play. The knee crash didn't look bad after watching the replay, but any knee troubles can mean trouble to his shooting and trouble to the team. Yeah, we can trash him all day about how much he sucks and how he's not even worth one CP3 assist, but he's been important to the Hawks play during this series, more so than I readily admit. Ever since Joe has been double-, triple-, even quadruple-teamed, we need that player who can consistently knock down open jumpers. Even though I'm still not completely sold on Marvin's jumper, it's been falling enough and he hasn't been rushing or shooting from too far away (he can only shoot from 16'-19', not an inch longer or shorter). Plus, who else do we have to knock down shots off passes from drives to the interior and said double- and triple-teams? I still don't want JSmoov to ever shoot from beyond 6 feet, JChill seems content on just driving the ball and getting layups and rebounds (even though he has a great shot and needs to hoist it up a lot more), and Bibby may pull a 2-8 again. Ok so this wasn't so much an injury note as it is more analysis of the offense, but whatever this may be the last time this decade you'll see me complimenting and expressing need for Marvin.

Interviews

You're probably expecting more than this right now. It's early morning before the Hawks biggest game since 'Nique vs. Bird, but this is all I can manage right now. My two favorite Hawks-related interviews of all time!

This was profoundly more inspiring at Philips. I guess Zaza is much more compelling when you can't understand a damn word he's saying.



Now, would I really be a Hawks fan if that interview didn't instantly drive me to find this gem:



Game 7.

Let's go Hawks! Unless we get a live blog going (no promises), consider this an open thread.

Zalad Tripp 2

Please don't let the series start tonight. I beg the basketball gods. At least let us get blown out in Game 7. Please.

For every JSmoov dunk I'll punch bonitis in the face and for every JJ 3 I'll kick Drew in the grundle. That's the extent I'm willing to go to win this game. I should go as far as to eliminate Mike Woodson so one of our assistants can manage this game...

May the Series Start TONIGHT

A playoff series doesn't start until the road team wins a game. LET'S GO HAWKS!!

Here are some things that the Hawks need to do and/or not do to have a chance in this game:
1. "Don't be satisfied." Maintain intensity! The Hawks love to start halves slow and have to make up a double-digit deficit. They need to want it for 48 minutes, and it starts with Horford and JSmoov, guys who provide energy through leadership and insane dunks, respectively. It's hard to measure intangibles like leadership, but Horford's effect on the team since the playoffs started cannot be understated. Playing that Rocky video, showing up Paul Pierce who could only respond by flashing menacing hand gestures, backing up Zaza's foreheadbutting, all of these and so many more things are influential on a young inexperienced team with a bad inexperienced coach.
2. Be mentally and emotionally strong. Do not waiver to the raucous Gardens crowd or the stifling physical Celtics defense. You know the crowd will be into it, and the Big 3 and company will come back with a vengeance at home. The Hawks were affected in the first two games and backed off when confronted with a hard foul or negative reaction from the crowd, but they need to just focus and play their game. The ATL home crowd really lifted the team and provided so much energy, esp. for JSmoov, but without the Sixth Man, the team has to keep a strong will without the help of twenty thousand fans. No one will expect Woodson to help the team in this aspect (or any other aspect?), but once again, the likes of Horford need to keep the team going when the going gets tough. And no matter how much momentum the Hawks gained at home, they'll most certainly be playing from behind in a hostile environment on the road. The Hawks weren't good playing from behind in the regular season, but showed they have the toughness in Games 3 and 4. I hope they can pull it off again on the road.
3. Continue doing what's been successful. Well, duh. But nevermind other NBA teams, the Hawks need to be reminded. Push the pace whenever possible; feed the ball into the post and let Horford and JSmoov force it to the rim or dish out to open shooters; play smart, hustle defense. Boston's offense will come out with more spark and aggression on their home court, and will probably run more crisply at home with the extra pass or strong drive. That will most likely mean lots of open shooters since the Hawks haven't really been playing the long range shot that well, Boston's shots just weren't falling in at Phillips. So it'd be good to see the Hawks players not miss their defensive assignments and give up easy baseline dunks or wide open shots to Rondo, Allen, or Posey.
4. Let the bench play. Acie has looked great all series even though he hasn't played at all the entire season, Zaza has brought toughness and timely rebounding, even Solomon can block a shot or two even though I have a heart attack everytime he goes near the ball. This is esp. important on the road, when the starters will be tired and worn down by the defense and crowd and the bench will need to give them a lift.
5. Give the ball to Joe. Enough said.

Game 4 Fracas

ESPN (TV so no link) is reporting that there will be no suspensions or fines as a result of the game 4 near-fight (blind Boston bias alert). I was expecting Marvin and Perkins to be suspended for stepping on the court (albeit barely), but suspending KG for shoving the ref was a long shot. I guess Stern is no longer applying the bench-leaving rule without exception. I bet many Suns fans are pissed at this ruling, and it will only fuel their conspiracy theories.

A Perkins/Marvin suspension would probably benefit the Hawks in game 5. Perkins was a rebounding force early in game 4, and Marvin was, well, let's just say that starting J-Chill instead of Marvin wouldn't be such a bad thing for the Hawks. Nevertheless, I do not think anybody should have been suspended. Of course, I thought the same thing about the Suns-Spurs incident last year. The league's inconsistency is a little puzzling. Either they were affected by last year's backlash, or there is a massive conspiracy to keep the Celtics in the playoffs (possibly involving robots).

>>Update<<

Story at ajc.com.

2 - 2

Sometime before the next game I might regain my composure. I might put on some clothing (all ripped to shreds) and stop screaming. I might get the haunting image of that Joe three over the fallen corpse of Leon Powe out of my head. I might write something meaningful on this site. But probably not. See you all Friday.

Cawwwwwww!

Wow. I can't say I expected that. Forget the first two games, the series tally, and even the rest of the series. Tonight is the Hawks' night. Tonight those high-flyin' rapscallions did the unthinkable. Tonight, Philips Arena was rockin' like never before. I have no desire to analyze the game, to offer predictions for Monday, or even to recap my experience at the Highlight Factory. Tonight, just bathe in the glory. This is the best Hawks win this millennium, and it may not get any better for a while. Yeah, I know--melodramatic. Whatever. Here are some pictures.



Big Al with a big slam.

(L) GET FIRED UP! (R) The ATL Drumline invades our section; bafoons rejoice.

I think this just about sums it up. J-Smoove went off. He went off.

Los Pensamientos Rapidos

Hey, I wrote "infrequent ramblings" in the header. Don't say I didn't warn you. End of the semester matters have really prohibited me from spending any time posting, but I'll be able to update with some semblance of regularity in a week or so. To tide you over, here's a few quick thoughts.

1. I wanted to do some in depth coverage of the Falcons draft, but...um, I didn't. Our obvious needs are DL (excluding DE), OL, and QB. I want Jake Long, but our chances look slim there. By "slim", I mean "nonexistent". I hope Dorsey falls to us, but that's looking less likely. If Dorsey isn't available at 3, all hell breaks loose. Ideally, I'd want us to trade down so we could get Sedrick Ellis somewhere around picks 8-10. That would be great, but the trade front has been pretty quiet (of course, what do I know?). I'm surprised there aren't more teams clamoring to move up for RunDMC or Chris Long. Both are great prospects, but they don't fit in with our needs whatsoever.

There are a couple of postJL first round OL options (Ryan Clady, Jeff Otah), but I'm not wild about any of them. Maybe I'm just bitter after Jake Long spurned me, and I now curse all first round linemen. As for QB, please, please, Senor Dimitroff--don't draft Matt Ryan. I was pimpin' him like a young Cambodian boy last fall, but I have come to my senses. He is apparently "smart" (racist media?), but even his strongest supporters admit to his lack of skillz and upside. They keep repeating "He doesn't have the strongest arm or the fastest legs, BUT..." like it is a badge of honor! I don't think it is. I'd much prefer we take a flyer early second round because Ryan is far from a sure thing. If we pick him third and make him the face of the franchise, he better be a sure thing. There are plenty of moderately rated QB options to pick from after Ryan: Flacco of the laser rocket CANNON arm, Brohm of the incredible dropping draft stock, Woodson of the remembrance of things past, Henne, Ainge, or Booty of the D-1 contendahs. I would much prefer one of these guys second round than M-Rye third overall (in this order: Brohm, Flacco, Henne, Woodson, Ainge, Booty).

Unfortunately, my nightmare scenario looks likely -- Rams select Dorsey and we don't have a trading partner. I think that forces Atlanta to pick Ryan (and I pray the Ravens or someone wants to trade for him post-selection). We don't want to make a glaring reach pick, QB is a position of need, and it's probably a good PR move. Falcons fans seem pretty split about Ryan, but most of the (arrogance alert) "more informed" fans seem against him. As for the rest of the draft, I love how many picks we have. It should be fun, and somebody is going to get a steal with Tashard Choice.

2. The Braves beat the Mets tonight, and I'm starting to feel pretty good about the team. I wish I posted my predictions on time because you would all bow to my prescience (Yunel + Jair = joy + incredibly baby names). I'll do a roster run-through eventually, addressing my thoughts past and present, so you can look forward to that (in September!).

3. The Hawks are in the playoffs?
Awesome!
Oh, I missed the first two games?
Yeah, but those were road games and--
By more than 20 points?!
Both times?!
Well, shit. I'm glad I didn't watch those games!*

*Not true. My masochism knows no bounds.

I'll keep it at that. I was not as brief as I planned, and now I'm going to fail some college crap. Thanks a lot, you guys.

>>Update 4/26 3:03 PM<<

Miami selected Jake Long (surprise!), and word is St. Louie is planning on taking Chris Long. There is some talk of them trading down, but the fruit of Howie's loins looks like he's the pick. That should open us up to take Glenn Dorsey, but I can feel it...we're going to take Matt Ryan. We are going to. I'm scared. That said, I could definitely be wrong about M-Rye, and I will support him on our team. I won't spontaneously combust if we pick Ryan, but please, please pick Dorsey! Please!

>>Update 4/26 3:19 PM<<

Dammit. Dammit. Dammit. The fact that we took Ryan when Dorsey was still available hurts my soul. My soooouuuuullllll.

I Thinking Fanhood

I missed all 3 games tonight, and so far have only watched maybe 6 quarters of the playoffs. Damn. I didn't mention in the last post but I unwittingly passed out just as the Hawks-Celtics game started because of April twentieths festivities. I’m ashamed of myself. I question my status as a die-hard fan. For missing game 1, not because of my prediction that they'll lose in 5 or get swept. I shouldn't have to think a team will win games or playoff series just because of how much I loves that team. I shouldn’t have to think the Hawks can take 2 or more games from the Celtics. I shouldn't have to think that the Hawks can take this series from the Celtics just because I’m a die-hard fan when I know it'll take short of a miracle, and I don’t believe in miracles.

Die-hard fans don't have to be blind about their team's chances or clueless about the other teams' skills and abilities, it just means that they'll stand by and live by every hardship and success that the team goes through no matter what, or rather, "stubbornly resisting change or clinging to a seemingly hopeless or outdated cause." I go through Billy Knight's drafts and trades, I go through shots of Mike Woodson's blank went confused face during televised games, I go through Josh Smith's fickle and negative attitude, I go through Marvin Williams's 12.1/5.3/1.4 and not Chris Paul's 18.2/9,5/4.5, I go through all the bad losses to worse teams; then I also go through JSmoov's blocks and alley-oops, Joe Johnson’s All-Star play, Al Horford's ROY campaign, Josh Childress’s afro and baseline mastery, Zaza Pachulia's fashion style, and 37 wins to finally get into the playoffs. What I didn't go through was the Hawk's first playoff loss in 9 years, and because I fell asleep on a sunny Sunday afternoon?? It's hard being a die-hard.

West preview coming up before game 3s start, hopefully. No empty promises though.

Game 2 Adjustments

I was busy last week and did not have any time during the weekend to write previews before the playoffs started, so I apologize for the empty promises. But really, the playoffs are about games 2 on since game 1 is more of a litmus test as players and coaches play their normal game and see what kind of adjustments they need to make for game 2 and the rest of the series. So I'll still be writing my general feelings for each matchup and then add a few adjustments that I think teams should make after game 1. I was so busy I also didn't even really have time to sit down and watch each game, which is a mortal sin for any real NBA fan to not watch every playoff game from start to finish. That's especially true for this season, the best and most exciting season I've personally witnessed with all the huge trades that completely changed the playoff landscape and made the West insanely competitive. I feel for Golden State, who would made a compelling 1st round series to watch, but I wouldn't put them in and take out Dallas or Denver as those two teams are ultimately better and aren't too shabby to watch either.

East

(1) Boston* vs. (8) Atlanta [*-won game 1]
Preview
I wonder how many people expected the Hawks to take even a game. Not many, if you followed either team and isn't a die-hard Atlanta fan. The Hawks get a pat on the beak for finally making the playoffs, but personally I find it meaningless if you're going to get swept in the first round. Yeah, our young players will get valuable experience, but how much experience if you're going to get humiliated for 4 games? I do hope this will build on the team and take them further in the season in future years. I also expected us to get outhussled, outplayed, and outcoached, and nothing in game 1 changes my opinion. And do I expect Mike Woodson to make any brilliant changes to his game-plan? Doc Rivers vs. Woodson chess match? That's like a 5-year-old missing all rooks, knights, and bishops going against an adult with 3 queens.

I do give mad props to Horford, seemingly the only big-time player on the Hawks (lookin' at you, Bibby) whose 2 NCAA championships and first NBA playoff game shows how mentally tough and talented my ROY is. He'll be a great player, All-Star caliber, for many years to come. Even Woodson can't screw that up because most of what Horford brings to the table he already had or developed himself (great hustle and smart rebounding, nice shooting touch, etc. etc. etc.).

Adjustments
Boston: Make sure KG doesn't have an aneurysm from the playoffs energy. That's about it. Both Ray Allen and Paul Pierce can go down and I still think KG, Rondo, and Cassell can beat the Hawks, though not in blowout-fashion as currently is the case.
Atlanta: Nothing that'll prevent losses, only the margin. Joe and Bibby's shooting won't stay dismal the entire series, but unless Joe can put up like 50/8/10 we have little chance. And there's really no chance of Joe scoring that much as the swarming Celtics defense would surely double- and triple-team to stop him. Other than some extremely hot shooting by the 2 starting guards, our role players (J-Chill, Marvin, Zaza) can't create enough plays or generate points on their own. I say we throw Salami and Jeremy in there and see if they can knock down a few 3's in playoff atmosphere. What's the loss? The Hawks can't possibly lose 5 in this series. I'm absolutely positive.

Bottom line: I mean, obviously I'd love for the Hawks to win, or at least take one game, but things aren't looking good.
Prediction: Boston in 4, I mean...5?

(2) Detroit vs. (7) Philadelphia*
Preview
I knew Philly was going to make it tough on Detroit, but I definitely did not expect them to take game 1 at the Palace. I thought the Detroit's great starting 5 and deep bench would nullify the quick and physical game A.M. and A.I. bring to the series. Detroit should come out stronger and stay that way for the rest of the series, and I still don't understand how Philly wins games, esp. against the likes of Detroit. This is a good test for Detroit in the first round as they would have beaten Washington, Toronto, or the Hawks very soundly. If they somehow lose to Mo Cheeks's Iverson-less Sixers, Boston is definitely in the finals.

Adjustments
Detroit: Turn up the intensity and stay focused. I don't see how the Pistons can underestimate Philly even though they're the only Eastern team that has given them trouble this season. Their guards will eventually get hot and I don't think Philly will be able to score enough points against a tough Detroit defense, that is, when they're focused.
Philadelphia: Continue the fast-paced, aggressive play. Get the rooks Thad and Lou Williams more involved, and continue the tight defense on Rip and Chauncey.

Bottom line: How many more playoff series and championships could the Pistons have won if they maintained focus for every game? I think they'll find their focus after losing the first game at home, and bring their A game which will ultimately be too much for Philly.
Prediction: Detroit in 7

(3) Orlando vs. (6) Toronto
Preview: I don't sound as smart saying it after game 1 happened, but I knew Jameer Nelson was going to be the X-factor for the series. He seriously outplayed Toronto's double-headed PG monster of Ford and Calderon after doing the opposite in the regular season, and along with the fact that no one can block out Superman led to an easy win. If Nelson continues his play, then along with Howard, Heeeedoooo, and Rashard, that team is too much for Toronto. Bosh is a spectacular player, but doesn't have enough help in the frontcourt which lets Magic defenders solely focus on him. I mean, did you really expect Bargnani or Nesterovic to do major damage (Rasho did have a nice 16/8 in game 1)? Both teams shoot lights-out from 3, but the frontcourt is what makes the difference in the matchup. And Stan Van Gundy vs. Sam Mitchell doesn't look so good for the Raptors either.

Adjustments
Orlando: Keep up whatever they're doing to mess with Ford and Calderon, because if those two go off then the entire team feeds off their passing and the Raptors instantly become more dangerous. The Magic can also improve their defense of 3-pointers.
Toronto: Get Ford and Calderon going! That opens up room for Bosh, who should also be more aggressive and go at Dwight Howard. In fact, the entire team needs to go straight for Howard and get him in foul trouble so that he doesn't corral every rebound that lands within 8 feet of him.

Bottom line: With ineffective PGs, Toronto doesn't have enough firepower to match Orlando. If Ford and Calderon can be effective, the matchup is a different story. Ultimately, Howard is an unstoppable beast and the guys around him, Hedo and Rashard, are too good.
Prediction: Orlando in 6


(4) Cleveland* vs. (5) Washington
Preview: What's with all the trash talk? Who does DeShawn Stevenson think he is? His idiotic attacks on the Cavs will only fuel them and make them focus and play harder, though it does make for a more interesting series. 1-for-9 shooting doesn't help your case, it only makes you a laughingstock in the opposing arena. Without the distractions, and the return of Agent Zero and a healthy Butler, I thought the Wizards would take a close series. After all, you can't lose 3 straight years, right? Sorry, Agent Zero, but after game 1 I have to swing my prediction to Cleveland. I expected the Cavs' traded players to be somewhat ineffective in their first playoff series with the team, but I guess it doesn't matter if you have the King. And even if West, Szczerbiak, Big Ben, or Joe Smith are ineffective, Cleveland still has Varejao and Gibson on the bench, both guys who were important to their Finals run last year. With Arenas coming off the long injury and coming off the bench, the Wizards don't have that go-to guy who'll score important buckets or get fouled to match Lebron.

Adjustments
Cleveland: Get everyone around the King going offensively. It seems every night only half of the role players are on their game while the other half is floundering and missing easy shots.
Washington: Give Brendan Haywood more touches. He's been very effective against Big Ben and Ilgauskas, and can follow up his own shot. Also get at least 2 of the big 3 going. Butler and Jamison seem content to launch 3's, and need to be more aggressive and get Lebron or the Cavs big men in foul trouble. Esp. Butler, who has not been close to putting up the numbers before his late-season injury. He can swing a close game by himself, and needs to establish himself more in the series. Defensively, no one can guard Lebron so the Wiz have to focus on every other player and make sure they can't support Lebron and thus force him to do all the work himself.

Bottom line: The Wizards trash-talking was a bad idea. They haven't backed it up at all. Lebron is unstoppable and we are all witnesses.
Prediction: Cleveland in 7

(1) Boston vs. (4) Cleveland - Prediction: Boston in 5
(2) Detroit vs. (3) Orlando - Prediction: Orlando in 7

(1) Boston vs. (3) Orlando - Prediction: Boston in 6


West previews coming up tomorrow, hopefully before the 3 game 2s start.

A random Thursday night

I promise to have a full NBA playoff matchups preview before the games start on Saturday (later edit: Not happening, will instead have a "mid-first-round" preview).

As for the Braves, John Smoltz is God. I don't know any other pitcher who can change his delivery mid-game because he's like 50 and got worn out early, then proceed to throw nothing but fastballs until each batter reaches 2 strikes, and then finish them off on the next pitch with that dank nasty slider. 3000 K's here we come! He may be the only thing I have to look forward to right now as far as the Braves are concerned, other than making bets on how many more games it'll take for Tex to go over the Mendoza line (8-10) and Hampton to throw one pitch in a live game(~300).

Would Drew or bonitis like to give a Falcons/NFL draft preview before next weekend? Lazy bastards. I'd volunteer but I don't know jack on this topic. All I know is we should obviously draft Colt Brennan 3rd pick.

Smell the Excitement!

It looks our first team Zalad field trip is on for tonight's Hawks - Celtics game at the Phil.

The game could be a good preview of the, ahem, sure-to-competitive possible playoff series, depending on the minutes we see form the green guys. Sadly, showing a lack of effort and focus is a bigger concern with the team in danger of losing its playoff spot. Weak stretch run aside, the magic number is down to two with two games remaining--let's make it one!

I hope to post a game/field trip recap (with pictures?) later tonight.

Under Controll-ey

Sweeping the Braves slaughter and Soriano injury under the rug...there's actually some good news out of Atlanta today!

Georgia Tech
First of all, in the only baseball story of the day (Bra-aves?), congratulations to the Jackets for beating the #14 Bulldogs 9-4 in Atlanta today. Deck McGuire got the win with a solid start, and Luke Murton was the big hitter (4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI). The beesball Jackets move to 26-7 (9-6). I would have more, but I couldn't make it to the game today. Everybody else did, though:

Game notes:
Largest crowd (4,609) in Russ Chandler Stadium history.

Nice. Not to be outdone, the GT softball team swept UGA in a doubleheader today. Good work, ladies.

Falcons
The new administration made a great move today by re-signing linebacker Michael Boley (ajc.com brief). The details aren't out yet, so no idea on length or money. Nevertheless, I'm thrilled this happened. Boley is the best defender on our team (except for maybe a healthy John Abraham), and one of the most underrated linebackers in the NFL. He's atheletic, strong, durable, and extremely versatile--good in run coverage, pass coverage, and even pressuring the QB. I'm glad he will continue his midfield patrol-ey.

Journey to the Underworld

According to Greek mythology, Orpheus was in love with Eurydice. When she died, he journeyed to the underworld and played his lute so beautifully that the most fiendish of creatures wept and granted his love a reprieve, on one condition: he could not look behind him to see her following him until they left the underworld. Of course, like any good tragedy, Orpheus could not resist temptation and he looked behind himself, dooming Eurydice back to hell.

The Braves are Eurydice and we fan, with our high pre-season prediction, are Orpheus. After two seasons in hell, we were granted a reprieve. And the Schaffer suspension, Soriano injury, and embarrassing losses to start the season (both through poor play and bad luck) have sent our love crashing back down. I'm not saying some sort of metaphysical essence that surrounds the Braves fandom has caused this (I'm more inclined to blame a team OBP of .324 and a bullpen that hastily traded Tyler Yates because of its supposed depth). However, I'm sure it's not helping.

Yes, week and a half into the season -- I'm not conceding anything. However, these are troubling trends that have continued from the previous two seasons of putridity -- our offense comes in spurts and our bullpen is atrocious (to put it nicely).

I'll let someone come up with the solutions, though, a collapse by the Mets and Phillies is certainly a plausible one.

Go Braves.

Hawks - Pacers, halftime/postgame

Halftime

Come on! Where the hell is the defense?? Indiana is pretty much our only threat at 3GB (Jersey at 4), and we can't play enough defense to not let Jeff Foster, freakin' Jeff Foster, go 4-4 for 10 points at half? Woodson, I'm looking at you!! The Hawks players look like they're hustling on defense, so when Jeff Foster gets wide open lay-ins that means they weren't prepared defensively. Seriously, Jeff Foster and Ronald "Flip" Murray? Offensive prowesses (is that a word?) that the athletic Hawks can't stop? I mean, I figured that Mike Dunleavy would burn us, but come on, how can Woody not prepare the team enough against the team posing the most threat to our playoff chances? And he was touted (a long long time ago) for his defensive coaching schemes.

Adjustments for the second half:
1. Help! Anything resembling help defense would be nice. Leaving an entire wing of the court open probably will mean giving up 2 easy points (see: Jeff Foster).
2. Be quicker on defending the pick-and-roll. Travis Diener has been weaving a maze and hypnotizing the Hawks defenders.
3. I haven't had much to complain about our offense lately, which has been flowing like I've never seen the Hawks do so before these last 10-15 games or so. But if we have to turn into the Nuggets to make up for our defensive deficiencies, then we need to get even better on offense.
3a. Bibby needs to create more and heat up with his shooting, and not just stand outside the arc and shoot a contested 3 every 4 or 5 plays.
3b. If our shooters can get hot and spread the floor, I'd like to see JSmoov continue what he was doing in the first half, driving in deep and slamming sick-ass dunks on the Pacer white boys. And he didn't take any of his vintage Camby-esque jump shots that usually brick, which is amazing because he feels obligated to take at least 3 or 4 of those per game (+ ~1 airball 3). In fact, I'd say JSmoov and Camby are equally good (bad?) shooters, which is saying something.
3c. If JSmoov is driving it in deep, everyone collapses and JChill can get his easy baseline dunks and lay-ups, or JSmoov can pass it out to Joe and Bibby to sink in the 3.


More after the game, as well as first-round analysis for the Boston series.



Postgame

Just kidding about the first-round analysis (good save, Drew)! I should have known better. Though I definitely didn't lose this game for us as we pretty much lost at the end of the 2nd quarter. Even if you have 2 more quarters to work with and are only down by 15, no scoring runs and no defensive stops = loss. Once again, credit Woody with the halftime defensive adjustments and motivational tactics to get his team going. *sarcastic applause* I was actually hoping Joe would just completely take over towards the end. He and Salami could have passed it back and forth on the 3-point line until one of them got open to shoot it.

I didn't know until after the halftime part of the post that we could have ended Indiana's chances with a win. We sure played like a team with a playoff drought determined to seal the deal and reach it for the first time in 9 years. *sarcastic appluase* I do hope that this will slap the Hawks on the beak and wake them up for the rest of the regular reason and hopefully beyond... literally, not a horrible joke. We are definitely still in good position if we can take one from either Boston or Orlando and Indiana loses to Philly and Washington. Umm... yeah... we're in good position. At least the Hawks only have one team to watch, since New Jersey won't take all of Boston, Cleveland, Toronto. Here comes a week of scoreboard watching!

What's up Cox?

There are many reasons factoring into the Braves' sub-.500 play to start the young season. The offense isn't clicking yet, the relief pitching has been subpar, and a few unlucky breaks here and there swings a close game to the opposing team (all losses by 1 run). But 3 losses to the Nationals and Pirates? Are there underlying reasons not indicated by stats that could be affecting the Braves' poor play? I say so, and I think it starts with the managing.

Don't get me wrong, Bobby Cox is a great manager. I have great respect for him and his soon-HOF career, the way he approaches the game and influences his players. Bobby will get 100% out of a player or lineup that many managers can only bring out maybe half that potential. But he does not know how to manage his pitchers during games. Too many times have I seen him keep in a starter an inning too late to lose a lead, and too many times have I seen him pull out a starter an inning or two too early and then fumble with the bullpen to lose the same lead.

Take tonight's series opener with Colorado for instance. Glavine was breezing through their lineup, and so he stumbled in the 7th with a couple of walks, but he still had good stuff that kept the Rockies batters guessing and leading into easy groundouts and a couple of K's. Maybe Bobby wanted to protect Glavine's 42-year-old arm and keep it fresh for the whole season, or thought that he lost his stamina since it's still early in the season, but Glavine could have easily finished the inning after throwing less than 90 pitches. With one out, Bobby didn't have confidence Glavine could have finished off Yorvit Torrealba and Jayson Nix? Who? That way, Moylan could have pitched the 8th and not let Boyer dish up a hanger to Holliday to lose the game like he did with Nady and the Pirates opener. (I realize Moylan gave up Zimmerman's walk-off on Opening Night in D.C., but that fate was out of the his and the Braves' hands.)

Bobby needs to calm down when he takes out his starter and not try to showcase his entire bullpen every night. It's nice to intimidate other teams by showing how great and stacked our bullpen is, but if Bobby keeps doing his thing, we won't have a great or stacked bullpen by midsummer as he slowly breaks every reliever's arm and confidence by taking them out after 1 out. For example...

Pitchers	IP
J Jurrjens	5.1
J Bennett	0.2
M Acosta	1.0
P Moylan	0.1
R Ring	0.1
C Resop	0.1
W Ohman	1.0

How about...

Pitchers	IP
J Bennett	4.0
B Boyer	2.0
W Ohman	0.2
M Acosta	1.1
R Soriano	1.0
C Resop	0.1
R Ring	0.1
C Resop	0.1

Ok, the first box score came from a win, and the second one was because of Mike Hampton's body that was apparently replaced with balsa wood and wax after '05, but seriously, is Bobby thirsty for another record, this time the one for most relief pitchers yanked after 1 out in a season? I mean, I realize that it's hard to juggle a very stacked bullpen esp. at the beginning of the season, but is pulling everybody out for 1 out really the best way to see how they fit into the relief system? Maybe the Cox is such a good manager he only needs 1 out to determine a reliever's worth and role with the team. Or how about putting a reliever (with 42 career appearances) into left field (0 career appearances) in between outs? I know Bobby is a great influence and innovator of the manager position, but he was definitely over his head on that move. Moving along now to my personal favorite so far in 2008:

Pitchers	IP
T Glavine	5.0
C Resop	1.0
W Ohman	0.1
P Moylan	0.1
R Ring	0.1
M Acosta	0.2
J Bennett	1.1
R Soriano	1.0
B Boyer	2.0

Way to develop rhythm and consistency with your pitchers, Bobby! I will be disappointed in any Braves game, win or loss, that does not employ at least 5 relievers, 3 of whom must pitch only 1 out and no more. Oh, and at least 5 shots into the Braves dugout of the starting pitcher's sullen facial expression after being pulled too early.

I must emphasize that I still love Bobby and I think he's awesome, and I would definitely not rather have any other manager (except maybe Joe Morgan). But it'd be nice if someone told him that relievers can go longer than 10 pitches, or that right-handed relievers can actually get out a left-handed batter (and vice versa). And honestly, you don't have to use up 3 relievers for every right-left-right(handed) batter sequence. No, seriously. Still, I think the 7 games so far has shown plenty of promise and potential, and Zalad members do not panic after a measly 3-4 start. Mark Kotsay has exceeded my expectations already, and at least our defense has looked pretty good. And we still have one of the best left fielders in Chris Resop...

The Competiton

THE MUTTS:
An interesting team, to say the least. Their pitching is such a question mark beyond Santana (who, really, I don't want to talk about... the image of Frenchy vs. him makes me physically ill). Pedro is the New York version of Mike Hampton, John Maine has broken down in the second half for two straight seasons, Oliver Perez is a Brave slayer (sigh) but who knows if last year was a fluke or not, and everything from beyond there is a question mark. Mike Pelfry? El Duque? These don't look like the type of players a contending team is expected to pitch every two out of five games. Of course, neither are the idiots we threw out last year (Redman? Jo-Jo Reyes? Buddy Carlyle?) so, I'm not calling the kettle black, believe me. The bullpen is great, with Wagner easily being the best closer in the division, if not the whole National League -- always steady (and always very short). The rest of the bullpen is solid -- Heilman and Schoeneweiss are the quintessential set-up guys and young Joe Smith showed a lot of potential last year. Jorge Houdini Sosa is comical -- already up to his old tricks (last game: 3 IP, 3 hits, 2 walks, no runs -- jerk).

As for the offense, there's no need to discuss David Wright -- we get it, he's awesome. Not like a "made-up-by-the-media-because-he's-in-New York-awesome," but awesome in a .416 OBP with 30 HRs at age 24 way. Jose Reyes is the type of player I kind of hate -- fast, always wiggling his bat, and getting dirty because he's got real "heart and grit (aka not real talent)." However, Jose Reyes is not David Eckstein, as his 78 stolen bases shows, in comparison to only 21 times he was caught stealing. Honestly, every time he is up to bat, I'm kind of scared he is going to get on base, even though he only had an OBP of .354 last year. Again, like Wright, he is only 25, so, there's a lot more to go. And what can be said about Carlos Beltran that isn't generic? He's a shoe-in for 30 HRs and 100 RBIs every year (except 2005, apparently), and with Wright and Reyes above him, he's going to see pitches he likes.

But the rest of the offense? Carlos Delgado was forged in the fiery inferno of creation -- I don't think he has that much left in him. Brian Schneider has never hit above .268 in a whole season. Luis Castillo is one of those "real heart and grit (aka not real talent)" type of players -- fear his .350 slugging! (OK, that's kind of mean, he does have a career OBP of .368). Ryan Church and Angel Pagan form a corner outfield of former prospects who were given a lot of opportunities -- to suck. Seriously, when you're picking up the Natspos and Cubs failed players, and starting them, you're in a bad spot.

Overall, the Mutts are a conundrum. In the positions that they are good, they have some of the best in all of baseball (Santana, Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Wagner). Where they're bad, they're really bad (4th/5th starters, bottom of the order). Can that balance win the NL East? Of course it can and, with the addition of Santana, they have to be the favorites since once every five days, they're going to be hard as hell to beat. However, their competition is still very stiff from both the Local Heroes and the...

PHANTASICALLY PHRIGHTFUL PHILLIES:
I'm sure I'm the only person to use the "ph" alliteration when talking about the Phillies, right?

Like the Mutts, I wanted to talk about their pitching first, but... really? Outside of Cole Hamels, who really is that good (nearly a K an inning last year, age 23), there's not a single pitcher on that team who scares me, starter or reliever. If Carlos Delgado is old, Jaime Moyer is time itself. I guess Kyle Kendrick has some potential (he is 23), but, he was incredibly erratic last year -- and I don't think you want the #3 starter on a team with playoff bound expectations learning the strike zone as he goes. Brett Myers is (insert a joke about him being a wife beater), but, more importantly, the owner of a career 4.34 ERA -- not exactly the ace they need. Who knows if Brade Lidge will ever be healthy and/or good, but what we do know is Tom Gordon will never be back to his Yankee days. Hey, at least they got Rudy Seanez so Jaime Moyer can have someone to recollect the Great Flood with.

But that offense -- Jesus. Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley form a trio that constitute three of the best players in the game, and easily the best offense in the division, if not the entire National League (Tigers probably take the cake for all of baseball). Howard hit 47 homes runs in 144 games last year, Utley drove in 103 RBIs and missed a month, and Rollins had 94 RBIs -- in the lead-off spot and has missed 8 games in the last three years. However, unlike the Mutts, they have a lot of depth outside of their top three. Make fun of him as you will, but Pat the Bat is basically a shoe-in for 30 HRs and 100 RBIs every year (though, it's about as empty a 30/100 as you'll get, though, he does walk more than people give him credit for). Shane Victorino exploded on the scene last year with a ridiculous 37-for-41 stealing bases. Geoff Jenkins, an import from Milwaukee, will platoon with Jayson Werth, which should give him so additional life since he hits lefties as well as I do -- however, he could easily hit 25 homeruns, as he did during his peak with the Brewers. Thirdbaseman Pedro Feliz is not good at all (no, seriously, he sucks) and catcher Carlos Ruiz is, you know, a catcher -- they can't all be Brian McCann!

The Phillies are interesting, very reminiscent of the Texas Rangers from a few years ago -- all offense, no pitching. However, that's not really fair because Rollins/Utley/Howard are all significantly better than the Rangers were. I also admit I could easily be sleeping on their pitching: maybe this will be the year Meyers gets it all together or maybe Cole Hamels will take the leap (which is certainly possible -- he's only 24!) and win 18 games. However, I know that offense will keep them in the race right until the end.

THE REST:
Not a deep analysis on the Natspos or Fish since they really aren't threat to win the division, however, it should be noted that they can not be slept on -- they will not be easy wins for anyone. Both their problems are pitching -- the Natspos threw Odalis Perez (SIGH) as their opening day starter and the Fish tried to one-up then by throwing out Scott Olsen. However, both teams have a lot of potential and are very well managed (especially with Manny Acta on the Natspos) and boast offenses that are deceptively good. Local hero Ryan Zimmerman and a healthy Nick Johnson form a very potent back-to-back for the Natspos and Hanley Ramirez for the Fish could easily be the best player in the National League. Also, Uggla/Willingham/Jacobs are all players who could be starting on much better teams, all potential to hit 20-25 HRs. Both teams have solid closers (Cordero on the Natspos and Gregg on the Fish), which means they're going to get all their saves against us, since the Braves never hit semi-decent relief pitching (prove me wrong, guys!). I know it's shameful to compare these two teams and say they're so similar, but, this is already long enough. However, trust me -- neither of these teams are as bad as ESPN "analysts" says they are and both could win 70-75 games (with the Natspos having a better shot than the Fish), though, I wouldn't put money on it.

PREDICTION:
Sorry, I'm not going do it. Seriously, it's too hard to tell and I don't want to jinx the Braves. I honestly don't know who is the best team in this division. I just know it's going to be very, very competitive. If you live and die with every game, this is not going to be a very fun year, however, if you're a fan of great baseball games, this is going to be a good one...

Links

Welcome, Drew(fus). Glad to have you in the fold.

Hawks

1. Horford says he tipped the infamous inbounds.
2. Zapruder picture of tip in question in the Hawksquawk forum.
3. Important site to bookmark for the upcoming campaign season.

Braves

1. Sigh. Hampton is a joke, Braves lose, Resop can play left field but can't pitch.

   "Resop was an outfielder [at the beginning of his minor-league career], so it was no big deal," Cox said of the pitching move."

   Yeah, but that doesn't mean he can pitch.
2. R-Braves play final year in Richmond, prepare to completely rip off Gwinnett county, courtesy of gullible, inept politicians.
3. Mark Teixeira always starts slow. Relax, baby.

• Career BA   OBP   SLG   OPS

• March/April: .251  .349  .435  .784

• Total: .286  .371  .539  .910
  

4. Sleeping with the enemy (SWTE): Head over to Metstradamus for the other perspective during the upcoming series (and season).

   "And now here's the worst part: Pedro Martinez is injured while Mike Hampton is healthy."

   That was April 2. Wonderful.

Falcons

1. Follow a reader vote draft countdown and get drunk on Falcohol here.
   
2. Pat Yasinskas has a funny name AND wrote a column about the Falcons, mainly our new coach, Mike Smith, which is not a funny name.
   
3. Steve Wyche non-story saying nobody has offered a trade for our 3rd pick.
   
4. Meaningless preseason schedule released.
   

Georgia Tech

1. Interesting Dennis Dodd article on Paul Johnson (must read).
   
2. D.J. Donley transferred to Perdue. James Johnson quit, explained.
3. Georgia Tech Sports Blog with a story and some commentary on incoming basketball recruit Iman Shumpert, who seems like a good kid.

1-3, 158 games to go

I don't really want to talk about the Braves. I'm sure bonitis (ed.) will come here later and go on a long diatribe about how Royce Ring's groundball to flyout ratio is at least three points from his regressive mean or how Chipper Jones's Isolated Patience is sure to increase by at least a factor of two any time now. Or something to make it not sound as bad as it is.

Here's the thing: it's not bad. At all. It's four games into a very, very long season. I was shocked to turn on ESPN today to see them talking about what's wrong with the Tigers? Um, the lost three games in a row? And you know what? They're probably going to do it again. It's the first week of the season, teams are still adjusting their rosters, still getting used to not drinking beer in the middle of the afternoon, and still adjusting to steroid withdrawal. Baseball is such a sport of aberration -- an unlucky bounce here, a low pitch there, or a Manny Acosta sighting and a sure thing becomes a loss. That's the point of a one run game -- they're so frustrating that you begin to second guess everything. And when we finally come back and win a few of them (which, I promise, will happen), we'll talk about the lucky breaks instead of the unlucky ones.

Of course I'm unhappy we lose a series to the Pirates of all teams, a team that is right up there with the Orioles in what appears to be a collective effort to suck really bad. And an opening loss to Washington hurts, too. But, it's such a long season. The only thing we can be sure of is that Mike Hampton is never, EVER going to pitch. That's it. By tomorrow, this will all be yesterday's news... until the Mets come to town. The beauty of baseball is that there is an opportunity for redemption almost every night -- and the problem of baseball is that is an opportunity for a soul-crushing defeat almost every night. Hopefully we'll inflate to the mean.

Oh, and I had a Zalad for the first time the other day. Quite delicious. The right mix of greens, carrots, and chicken tenders. Of course, with the fried chicken strips and fatty dressing, I'm not sure how healthy it was, but that's a salad for you -- tries to pass itself off for something good, but inevitability corrupted in the end. A life metaphor? No.

Here we go again...

Hawks 127, Raptors 120

I'm going to use this game as an impetus to delve into some of the topics I've been meaning to write about. This was obviously a huge win (for now), but we can celebrate the good parts later. There were so many aspects of this game we've seen over and over again this season.

Inability to Defend PG's

TJ Ford cut up the lane like warm butter, and a slumping Calderon dished out 10 assists. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of the Bibby trade (an amaziing 26-12-6 tonight, with that RIDICULOUS 3pt at the end of the 4th. Was that really the best defense TJ Ford had to offer??), but the fella can't play defense. Our PG defense has been lackluster all year (and the year before that and before that and before that...), but it's actually gotten worse since the trade. Though it's not my favorite statistic, John Hollinger's PER is very solid and provides a good baseline for comparing players. If you're unfamiliar: explanation here, current league leaders here. The league average is set to 15, but I'm mostly going to be talking about net PER. The following numbers show Atlanta's net production at each position, meaning Hawks player PER/48 min - Opponent player PER/48 min.

• PG -4.2
  
• SG +3.1
  
• SF +0.4
  
• PF +1.5
  
• C -3.1

I doubt any Hawks fan is surprised that we fare worst at PG and C. At this time, I'm just going to focus on our PG play.

Player, PER, opponent PER, net (only for time played with Atlanta)

• Anthony Johnson, 13.7, 14.6, -0.9
• Tyronn Lue, 14.4, 15.0, -0.6
• Acie Law, 7.0, 19.1, -12.1 (ouch)
• Mike Bibby, 17.1, 19.6, -2.6

Surprisingly, AJ and TLue played good enough defense to balance their mediocre offensive contribution. A-Claw IV's numbers are atrocious, but I'm going to blame injuries and Mike "Point-guards-can-develop-by-playing-four-minutes-a-night" Woodson for that. Bibby's offense rates above the league average, but he's been getting lit up on defense. Both his offensive and defensive numbers have improved lately, so hopefully it has a lot to do with getting a feel for the "system." I reiterate that I'd much rather have Bibby than AJ or Lue, but allowing PG's to put up a PER of 19.6 is pretty bad. It's easy to try to shift blame from Bibby. Maybe it's the coach or the small sample size. How'd he do in Sacremento this year?

• Mike Bibby, 16.7, 20.5, -3.8

Oh... Well, he was injured, right? Okay, okay, his defense is terrible. Who am I kidding? You can see it on the floor. He's older, slower, and hobbled. I'm gonna cut him a little slack anyways.

Team defense is especially important when facing good point guards. How do we defend the high pick and roll? I'd say poorly. How about our non-JSmoove help defense? Absent. Do you believe that our coach develops a good defensive scheme? I don't. Our defense has gone way downhill since Bibby got here, but he can't be completely blamed for, say, giving up 109 to the Knicks.

If we end up facing Boston in the first round (somehow we're closer to 5th place than 9th place now), this won't be that big a deal. Rajon Rondo is pretty solid, but that's not who I will be fearing in that series. Quick, penetrating guards abuse the slow-footed Bibby the most, so just be glad we probably won't bet seeing Tony Parker, Chris Paul (sigh), or TJ Ford.

Joe Johnson 40.9 mpg

Joe is second in the NBA in mpg this year, behind AI (41.9). Last year's spring "injury" notwithstanding, Joe is basically superman. I keep waiting for him to show major signs of fatigue, but he doesn't. After months of this, he plays his best in March, winning the much-deserved POM award. Still, I'm terrified. I can't see how he'll have anything left in the tank come playoffs. The heavy minutes are obviously not limited to Joe. Our top 6 are logging ridiculous minutes right now. I know our spot has never been secure, so I'm not suggesting we bench our starters. But come on, Woody, is this the best player management you can do? Aside from the occasional Zaza good game (more frequent lately) and 3 minute bursts of good Acie play, nobody beyond sixth man JChill has contributed squat recently. I think Acie and Zaza are good players who can contribute consistently. They have a lot more to offer, but I think Woody wastes their skills.

And why does he refuse to feed us a steady diet of Salami? Yes, Woody, you hate Salim. "He shoots too much. He's short. He's not Joe Johnson." Give him consistent playing time (10 mpg ain't much!) and he can provide consistent shooting. He has not been especially consistent, but what do you expect when his playing time is sporadic at best? I'm still amazed at how the "mini microwave" can come in every 25 games or so and still provide instant offense. He can put up more points than minutes!

That's just one rant for one player. We could go on. Don't even get me started on big Al. Woodson is terrified of missing the playoffs. If we don't go, he gets fired (well, he should). He also has no trust in his players, probably because he can't develop poop from the digested food in his colon, let alone a productive bench player from a somewhat talented cast (what?). His consistent benching of Horford is ridiculous. His refusal to use all his assets is running Joe and Bibby into the ground, consequently endangering the slim, slim chance we have of succeeding in the postseason.

Even though our collapses have been going on all year, I'm confident that fatigue plays a big role in our frequent come-from-ahead losses. How many times have we built a large lead early and blown it like Chloë Sevigny? More than once, I say! That didn't really happen tonight, but we did go from being up 10, to being up 4 at the end of the 1st, to being down 17 in the third! Then, to my amazement, we battled back and won in OT. Hats off to the guys for scraping the win out. I'm amazed they had it in them. Our last possession in regulation was decidedly anti-Hawk. In countless games this year, we've given up offensive rebound after offensive rebound on that last crucial possession. It was nice to have see that reversal. Three 3pt attempts in 15 seconds, with the worst shot of them all going in. I'll take it. We also had something else working in our favor...

Talking 'bout Protest

Anybody who saw the game knows the Raptors should've won. There was the 17 point lead. Their offensive rebound with 17 seconds left, which Delfino stupidly dribbled instead of holding onto. The multiple shot attempts they gave us during our last possession. And, of course, the layup TJ Ford made that didn't count. With the game tied 107-107 and 0.5 seconds left, an inbounds lob to a cutting TJ Ford resulted in the game-winning layup...until the refs revoked it.

First of all, that was pathetic defense. How can that happen with 0.5 seconds left? I can understand a little room because we weren't expecting a lob to the shortest player on the floor. But, come on! That much space? Really? If you didn't see it, he was WIDE open. It was ridiculous. You get the point. Ridiculous


The officials ruled the basket good, but took away the points after they reviewed it. They were correct in saying the ball was still in his hand when time expired. However, the time clearly started before TJ touched the ball, and the clock would not have struck zero if the timer was started correctly. Word is the Raptors are seriously considering protesting the game. Fortunately, nobody involved with the Hawks made the error. One of the referees was actually responsible for starting the clock with a remote (Eric Davis?), so it was the officials' fault. Since it was essentially a bad call by a ref, I doubt Fuhrer Stern will overturn the victory. I understand the non-Shaq Shaq replay, since our scorekeeper unintentionally cheated. Granting a protest for a referee mistake is a whole 'nother story, and I doubt the NBA wants to open up that road. If they do, there will be a lot of angry people in Atlanta. Since this loss moved the Raptors into a three way tie for 5th/6th/7th, there are probably a lot of angry people in Toronto, but that's in Canada, so who cares?

There were a few more things I was going to talk about, but I'll already gone longer than I wanted, so I'll save it for another day. Coming soon -- a few Braves predictions.

MW or MVP?

Marvin Williams doesn't deserve to start for the Hawks. I just saw him contribute to a frustrating loss on the road against Chicago, and I'm pissed off. He's just not good enough, and his limited skillset does not mesh well with the team. Yeah, when a player is shooting like 60% on 18-22 footers for a 3 or 4 game stretch, that's fine and I think most teams will take that. But when the shooting is inconsistent, you have to make up for that by driving the ball and making plays or hustling your tail off for rebounds. Marvin Williams has a 1% success rate of scoring a basket, getting fouled, or assisting an easy layup when he drives towards the hoop. He is just that bad off-the-dribble. And for a guy of his athleticism and length to average 5 rebounds, that's pretty pathetic. So when his shot isn't falling, and it usually takes 5 or 6 misses each game for him to realize that his shot is off, he'll just float around or hastily drive the ball in which usually ends up in a turnover or a blocked layup attempt.

I think the problem with Marvin is his arrogance. Have you ever seen him walk? He looks like a freakin' duck! He has so much swagger it's ridiculous when you think about how he plays. He thinks he's the shit because he was a great college player on a championship team and starts in the NBA, has no idea that he is worthless compared to the two PGs picked after him, and does not feel compelled at all to work extra hard to prove his worth. All of this has led to him marginally improving his shot and rebounding each year while Deron Williams and Chris Paul have been making leaps and bounds each year in their playmaking and leadership. While both of those players are already in MVP discussions, Marvin is still in some people's "biggest draft bust" list and the problem is, do you see him improving his game much in the next few years? I sure don't. He'll just keep swaggering around like a duck and never look around at all the critics accurately describing how bad he is. I say we sell him high now, not that any team is high on him but I think we can still manage to get a decent player in his replacement. I can see a team being lulled into believing Marvin's upside (or mirage of one). Still, it would be better than keeping him as a starter so that everyone is constantly reminded of how badly Billy Knight screwed up in that draft, and then try to dump him off in a few years as a meaningless add-on in a trade.

So since we have established Marvin Williams does not deserve to start (I barely think he should even come off the bench, and only when the other guys are tired or in foul trouble), here are 2 solutions for the starting five:
1. Mike Bibby-Joe Johnson-Josh Childress-Josh Smith-Al Horford: If the 2nd pick of the '05 draft sucks, why not start both 1st-rounders of the '04 draft instead? Josh Childress as a 6th man works well because he provides desperately-needed energy and great scoring percentage and rebounding, but couldn't he be just as good, if not better, if he were starting alongside fellow '04 1st-rounder Josh Smith, Bibby, Joe, and Horford? With Marvin starting, J-Smoov already had to move to the 4 so J-Chill wouldn't change that, and he'd be a great scorer and rebounder, and Mr. Baseline would receive easy layup passes from Bibby and Joe to start the game instead of having to wait for more than half a quarter for Mike Woodson to realize that Williams is contributing nothing on offense or defense. J-Chill is averaging practically the same amount of steals (0.9) and blocks (0.6) as Marvin (1.0, 0.4) with fewer minutes, and his shooting percentage is ridiculous. In any case, we better not ever trade Childress because he'd average 30 on 60% shooting starting on a decent team. As for J-Chill's 6th man role, I think Salami can be a decent fill-in as an offensive spark off the bench, and Jeremy Richardson should play more.
2. Mike Bibby-Joe Johnson-Josh Smith-Al Horford-Zaza Pachulia: Woodson has been experimenting with Horford and Zaza on the court at the same time, and I like it every time I see it. We have great offensive rebounding in Zaza and great defensive rebounding in Horford, and both have decent short-range jumpers and good passing, esp. Horford. This would move Horford back to his natural 4 and J-Smoov back to his natural 3, though with two other big bodies on offense J-Smoov may not have as much space to maneuver for his great inside moves. In any case, the Hawks let other teams get way too many offensive rebounds and put-backs and Marvin isn't helping anything. J-Chill can still come off the bench as one of the best 6th man in the league, and Marvin can be the 9th man behind Richardson.



You can't mention Marvin's failings without mentioning Chris Paul's achievements. He's my MVP for this season over Kobe, Lebron, and KG. I mean, this guy is absolutely sick, capable of going for 35-17 every night. I mean, he made David West an All-Star. Who? And is that Tyson Chandler I see hustling and making plays? I'm confident that Chris Paul can go to any lottery team and make them a playoffs team instantly, and make some role players All-Stars in the way he did so with David West. West would still be unheard of if he wasn't playing with Paul. Like everyone who was fawning over Steve Nash the last few years, with stats of how he improves his entire team being shown for every nationally broadcasted Phoenix game, I feel the same way about Chris Paul. In fact, I still think he's underrated and not talked about enough about how good he is. His Hornets are currently the top team in the ridiculous West and still no one is talking about them. I have yet to see him perform in the playoffs, but if he can match what he's doing in the regular season, I think he can carry his team to the finals. Kobe has Gasol, Bynum, and Lamar Odom on his team. Lebron is playing .500 ball in the Eastern conference. KG has Pierce and Allen and a stacked steam similar to the Lakers. I expect either Kobe or Lebron to take the prize, but ultimately Chris Paul is just that much better of a basketball player and teammate, and if he doesn't win this year he should win the next three.

Planting Playoffs Seeds

Number of games in the teens and time to make seeding predictions. Actual playoffs outcome predictions will be another entry.

Hawks

Calling all anti-jinxing spells and mantras: The Hawks will play out the rest of the regular season as the 8th seed and reach the playoffs for the first time this millennium!

-I was wrong about the Bulls, they've got nothin' and no one on the team seems to give a damn except Joakim Noah. Even the East 8th seed needs a little more than insert-Noah-ugly-joke-here and Deng and Gordon cruising for the rest of the season and Kirk Hinrich still asleep at PG.

-Indiana better take one or both of their week doubleheader (Wed., Fri.) with Jersey/Brooklyn. The Nets still seem alive and hungry and Devin Harris seems to have finally given this team (or Vince Carter) the boost it needed to compete. They are definitely still our biggest threat and my prediction of them entering tanking mode isn't likely to happen anytime soon. Thus, even though I just picked him up for my fantasy playoffs push, I really do not want Jermaine O'Neal to come back. The Pacers are doing fine without him and he'd just slow them down and ruin them with his inadequate inside game. The Pacers need to be O'Neal-less and beat the Nets with their white starters, who have not disappointed after receiving e-props from this blogger. Mike Dunleavy vs. Vince Carter? What a matchup. You may wonder, "Wouldn't Indiana be posing more of a threat to the Hawks if they beat the Nets twice and keep winning?" The answer is no way! Did you already forget they have four white starters?

-Did Kirk Hinrich and Travis Diener switch bodies for most of this season?


East

Predicted seeding (Current seeding)
1(1). Boston - No way KG is letting them lose home-field advantage.
2(2). Detroit - No way they're losing enough games to drop below Orlando.
3(3). Orlando - Superman!! Heeeedooooooo! Rashaaaaad. (I had nothing to say here)
4(4). Cleveland - Is Bron-Bron just coasting (by coasting I mean average like a 27-8-6) because he realizes they're stuck at 4th seed?
5(5). Washington - They got Caron Butler back and healthy. Enough said.
6(7). Toronto - They got Chris Bosh back. If the team can go back to pre-Bosh-injury form, which I think they'll do so quickly with Calderon running the show (even though his numbers severely dropped with Bosh out), they'll win enough games to overtake Philly.
7(6). Philly - Still love how this team is winning, and with just pure athleticism and no outside shooting whatsoever. However, I see the team coming down to earth a little bit nearing the end, and how about a two-day doubleheader in early April against the Hawks? The Hawks are athletic enough themselves that I'm seein' 2 L's for Philly!
8(8). Atlanta - Sliding in smooth and unnoticed. Larry Legend beware.

-The top 5 seeds are set. Not much movement going on there.

-The only fight I see is between Toronto and Philly, which will be interesting because the teams are polar opposites: Toronto has a bunch of sharpshooting Europeans taking 3's and Philly has a bunch of muscular and powerful black guys taking it strong to the hoop. I see both teams winning a lot until the playoffs start with their contrasting styles, but it was hard to pick against Chris Bosh-Jose Calderon which was so effective before Bosh got hurt. But since Philly plays such a strong inside game, that tends to be more consistent than perimeter-oriented teams like Toronto and that consistently could factor into close games when the two teams are a half game apart. Not that Toronto is completely perimeter-oriented when they have a freakin' beast inside in Bosh.


West

First, I'd like to state the obvious and say how absolutely insanely close the Western race is. It's absolutely ridiculous. And now with Golden State only a half-game above 9th seed Denver, this is absolutely insane. Oh, I already used that phrase. I'll let my seedings do the talking:

1(?). ???
2(?). ???
3(?). ???
4(?). ???
5(?). ???
6(?). ???
7(?). ???
8(?). ???

9(?). ???

Within two days the entire lineup could look completely different than it is currently. I have absolutely no idea which team is going to get hot and which team is going to have a Dirk-esque injury and which team will finally play to their potential. All nine teams are really really good, even Denver. I just don't know. Thinking about it makes my head hurt. And makes me giddy thinking about how awesome NBA games and highlights will be until the end of the season. And then the playoffs will somehow be even more amazing. Basically, no matter how shitty my real life is right now, the Western Conference playoffs race will make it just that much better.

Ok, that was a lame way to predict the West. It's too late (early?) and I'm tired. I'll make sure to engage in long, intense discussions with my colleagues and come back with a real prediction. Stay tuned.

Streaking

Uhhh...I planned for this entry to be written last week when this actually mattered, but I'll finish it anyways for funsies.

The Rockets won a NBA-history-2nd-best 22 games then proceeded to get destroyed by a Ray Allen-less Boston team. KG made sure the streak ended, and you can see signs of KGness from their defense. Boston played insanely stifling defense (which I think will lead them over Detroit to the Finals if KG is alive and has his vocal chords working), and combined with a Houston team with inexperienced rooks, a cold T-Mac, and no Yao led to such an embarassing end to the streak that the media immediately tossed the streak away as headline news and went back to LakersLakersLakers.

And yes, Houston did win without Yao for the second half of the streak, and everyone got to see the finger-wags again, but I don't think the team will go very far in the playoffs Yao-less. Rafer Alston is not going to drop 25-7 per night (even though he's on my fantasy team and is awesome), T-Mac will be doubled, and Luis Scola and Carl Landry won't be enough to fill in for a 7-5 center who can score in the post consistently. The team can play great defense, better defense with Mutombo than Yao, and have more room in the paint for the smaller players to drive and make plays which before would have been Yao's fade-away jumpers. Still, great defense and never-been-out-of-the-first-round T-Mac don't add up against the rest of the ridiculously stacked West playoff teams. As of now they are the 3rd seed and would play 6th seed San Antonio, and I don't think Dike will be finger-wagging Tim Duncan too much. Houston did beat SA during the streak, but it was the very first game and Yao was still healthy *cough* pre-Olympic-tampering. Their last regular season meeting is this Sunday, and will be tough for Houston to win at San Antonio now that Parker is healthy and back to his crazy circus layups routine. I do like the Bobby Jackson pickup though. If he can rain those 3's and play alongside Alston, T-Mac, Scola/Landry, and Dike, that's a very good if somewhat undersized Rockets five.

I also planned to write about the Hawks' 4-game losing streak earlier in the month, but the team has since seemingly found the urgency that never seemed to display itself in games even though most players on the team who talks to the press talk all the time about urgency (J-Chill, Joe, Horford), and you don't need me to point out the Highlight Factory battling for its first playoffs in a century and actually having a good chance because so many Eastern conference teams suck. Which will forever be repeated because it is ridiculous that the Hawks are actually in the playoffs right now; they would be 12th in the West right above the Clippers and T-Wolves.

Looking Below

As of Wednesday afternoon, the Hawks are 0.5 game ahead of Jersey and Chicago, 1.5 ahead of Indiana, and 2 full games ahead of Charlotte. This is a fight for the 8th seed that probably won't be settled until the last week or so. None of the teams have a legit chance of passing the 6th or 7th seed, Washington and Philly. Washington manages to be decent even without Butler, and with him coming back and Agent Zero itching to launch a few 3's before the playoffs start, they're nestled in at 6th, a couple games behind Toronto. Philly has been the dark horse, with no one predicting them to do any damage yet the quattro of AI2-Andre Miller-Thad-Mo Cheeks is winning games lately like nobody's business. I used to think Mo Cheeks was horrible, but he's definitely showing me up this season. Basically all that was to say that unless we change coaches before this weekend, we're not going any higher than 8th.

Now, to the teams that can take the 8th seed from the Hawks:
New Jersey (0.5GB) - The Brooklyn Nets can't get anything going lately after trading away J-Kidd. VC had a few good games immediately after the trade, but has since gone back to "I'm Vince Carter" mode. Richard Jefferson isn't good enough to carry a team with a crappy supporting cast, and Devin Harris is either still bothered by his injury or hasn't adjusted to the team yet. Even though they are the closest record-wise, the Nets have the least chance of overtaking the Hawks at the rate they're going, which I believe will continue until the end of the season.
Chicago (0.5GB) - Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden can actually make a team better?? Just kidding about Hughes, but Gooden has been playing with a chip on his shoulder (or a mexistache on the back of his head?) and his power hustle play along with a healthy Deng and an occasional hot streak from Ben Gorden is combining for W's. If this bunch of guys can gel, which has already been happening more quickly than expected, and if Kirk Hinrich can wake up, the Bulls can be pretty intimidating. I still can't decide if Scott Skiles made everyone overachieve the past few years or all the players are just severely underachieving this season, but right now they have enough pieces to still make a serious run at 8th.
Indiana (1.5GB) - Sometimes players just need a change of scenery. Mike Dunleavy is tearin' it up this season with a bunch of 30-point games already after having just one in his career before the trade from GS. Danny Granger is still underachieving IMO but is doing enough to win games, and Travis Diener is a half-way decent replacement for the turnover machine (Tinsley) though still not a real NBA PG starter. The white starting line-up that would make Jazz fans jealous of Diener, Dunleavy, Murphy, and Foster (along with a pale Granger) can get it done, and I wouldn't be surprised if they rise a few spots and seriously contend for the last spot.
Charlotte (2GB) - They're the Charlotte Bobcats! Michael Jordan "runs" the team. Yeah, a healthy duo of JRich and GWall (bad nick, whatever) can score with the best of them. But still, as I quote myself from a previous sentence, "They're the Charlotte Bobcats." I hope I don't eat my words in a few weeks...

Anyways, among the 4 teams below us, I think Chicago is our biggest threat followed by Indiana, with the Nets and Bobcats dropping off into tanking mode sometime before April. I hate the Eastern Conference. Among other things (ownership), the Leastern is preventing Woodson's firing. Though I can't complain about the Hawks somehow, somehow, somehow clinging to that 8th and last playoff spot.