MW or MVP?

Marvin Williams doesn't deserve to start for the Hawks. I just saw him contribute to a frustrating loss on the road against Chicago, and I'm pissed off. He's just not good enough, and his limited skillset does not mesh well with the team. Yeah, when a player is shooting like 60% on 18-22 footers for a 3 or 4 game stretch, that's fine and I think most teams will take that. But when the shooting is inconsistent, you have to make up for that by driving the ball and making plays or hustling your tail off for rebounds. Marvin Williams has a 1% success rate of scoring a basket, getting fouled, or assisting an easy layup when he drives towards the hoop. He is just that bad off-the-dribble. And for a guy of his athleticism and length to average 5 rebounds, that's pretty pathetic. So when his shot isn't falling, and it usually takes 5 or 6 misses each game for him to realize that his shot is off, he'll just float around or hastily drive the ball in which usually ends up in a turnover or a blocked layup attempt.

I think the problem with Marvin is his arrogance. Have you ever seen him walk? He looks like a freakin' duck! He has so much swagger it's ridiculous when you think about how he plays. He thinks he's the shit because he was a great college player on a championship team and starts in the NBA, has no idea that he is worthless compared to the two PGs picked after him, and does not feel compelled at all to work extra hard to prove his worth. All of this has led to him marginally improving his shot and rebounding each year while Deron Williams and Chris Paul have been making leaps and bounds each year in their playmaking and leadership. While both of those players are already in MVP discussions, Marvin is still in some people's "biggest draft bust" list and the problem is, do you see him improving his game much in the next few years? I sure don't. He'll just keep swaggering around like a duck and never look around at all the critics accurately describing how bad he is. I say we sell him high now, not that any team is high on him but I think we can still manage to get a decent player in his replacement. I can see a team being lulled into believing Marvin's upside (or mirage of one). Still, it would be better than keeping him as a starter so that everyone is constantly reminded of how badly Billy Knight screwed up in that draft, and then try to dump him off in a few years as a meaningless add-on in a trade.

So since we have established Marvin Williams does not deserve to start (I barely think he should even come off the bench, and only when the other guys are tired or in foul trouble), here are 2 solutions for the starting five:
1. Mike Bibby-Joe Johnson-Josh Childress-Josh Smith-Al Horford: If the 2nd pick of the '05 draft sucks, why not start both 1st-rounders of the '04 draft instead? Josh Childress as a 6th man works well because he provides desperately-needed energy and great scoring percentage and rebounding, but couldn't he be just as good, if not better, if he were starting alongside fellow '04 1st-rounder Josh Smith, Bibby, Joe, and Horford? With Marvin starting, J-Smoov already had to move to the 4 so J-Chill wouldn't change that, and he'd be a great scorer and rebounder, and Mr. Baseline would receive easy layup passes from Bibby and Joe to start the game instead of having to wait for more than half a quarter for Mike Woodson to realize that Williams is contributing nothing on offense or defense. J-Chill is averaging practically the same amount of steals (0.9) and blocks (0.6) as Marvin (1.0, 0.4) with fewer minutes, and his shooting percentage is ridiculous. In any case, we better not ever trade Childress because he'd average 30 on 60% shooting starting on a decent team. As for J-Chill's 6th man role, I think Salami can be a decent fill-in as an offensive spark off the bench, and Jeremy Richardson should play more.
2. Mike Bibby-Joe Johnson-Josh Smith-Al Horford-Zaza Pachulia: Woodson has been experimenting with Horford and Zaza on the court at the same time, and I like it every time I see it. We have great offensive rebounding in Zaza and great defensive rebounding in Horford, and both have decent short-range jumpers and good passing, esp. Horford. This would move Horford back to his natural 4 and J-Smoov back to his natural 3, though with two other big bodies on offense J-Smoov may not have as much space to maneuver for his great inside moves. In any case, the Hawks let other teams get way too many offensive rebounds and put-backs and Marvin isn't helping anything. J-Chill can still come off the bench as one of the best 6th man in the league, and Marvin can be the 9th man behind Richardson.



You can't mention Marvin's failings without mentioning Chris Paul's achievements. He's my MVP for this season over Kobe, Lebron, and KG. I mean, this guy is absolutely sick, capable of going for 35-17 every night. I mean, he made David West an All-Star. Who? And is that Tyson Chandler I see hustling and making plays? I'm confident that Chris Paul can go to any lottery team and make them a playoffs team instantly, and make some role players All-Stars in the way he did so with David West. West would still be unheard of if he wasn't playing with Paul. Like everyone who was fawning over Steve Nash the last few years, with stats of how he improves his entire team being shown for every nationally broadcasted Phoenix game, I feel the same way about Chris Paul. In fact, I still think he's underrated and not talked about enough about how good he is. His Hornets are currently the top team in the ridiculous West and still no one is talking about them. I have yet to see him perform in the playoffs, but if he can match what he's doing in the regular season, I think he can carry his team to the finals. Kobe has Gasol, Bynum, and Lamar Odom on his team. Lebron is playing .500 ball in the Eastern conference. KG has Pierce and Allen and a stacked steam similar to the Lakers. I expect either Kobe or Lebron to take the prize, but ultimately Chris Paul is just that much better of a basketball player and teammate, and if he doesn't win this year he should win the next three.

Planting Playoffs Seeds

Number of games in the teens and time to make seeding predictions. Actual playoffs outcome predictions will be another entry.

Hawks

Calling all anti-jinxing spells and mantras: The Hawks will play out the rest of the regular season as the 8th seed and reach the playoffs for the first time this millennium!

-I was wrong about the Bulls, they've got nothin' and no one on the team seems to give a damn except Joakim Noah. Even the East 8th seed needs a little more than insert-Noah-ugly-joke-here and Deng and Gordon cruising for the rest of the season and Kirk Hinrich still asleep at PG.

-Indiana better take one or both of their week doubleheader (Wed., Fri.) with Jersey/Brooklyn. The Nets still seem alive and hungry and Devin Harris seems to have finally given this team (or Vince Carter) the boost it needed to compete. They are definitely still our biggest threat and my prediction of them entering tanking mode isn't likely to happen anytime soon. Thus, even though I just picked him up for my fantasy playoffs push, I really do not want Jermaine O'Neal to come back. The Pacers are doing fine without him and he'd just slow them down and ruin them with his inadequate inside game. The Pacers need to be O'Neal-less and beat the Nets with their white starters, who have not disappointed after receiving e-props from this blogger. Mike Dunleavy vs. Vince Carter? What a matchup. You may wonder, "Wouldn't Indiana be posing more of a threat to the Hawks if they beat the Nets twice and keep winning?" The answer is no way! Did you already forget they have four white starters?

-Did Kirk Hinrich and Travis Diener switch bodies for most of this season?


East

Predicted seeding (Current seeding)
1(1). Boston - No way KG is letting them lose home-field advantage.
2(2). Detroit - No way they're losing enough games to drop below Orlando.
3(3). Orlando - Superman!! Heeeedooooooo! Rashaaaaad. (I had nothing to say here)
4(4). Cleveland - Is Bron-Bron just coasting (by coasting I mean average like a 27-8-6) because he realizes they're stuck at 4th seed?
5(5). Washington - They got Caron Butler back and healthy. Enough said.
6(7). Toronto - They got Chris Bosh back. If the team can go back to pre-Bosh-injury form, which I think they'll do so quickly with Calderon running the show (even though his numbers severely dropped with Bosh out), they'll win enough games to overtake Philly.
7(6). Philly - Still love how this team is winning, and with just pure athleticism and no outside shooting whatsoever. However, I see the team coming down to earth a little bit nearing the end, and how about a two-day doubleheader in early April against the Hawks? The Hawks are athletic enough themselves that I'm seein' 2 L's for Philly!
8(8). Atlanta - Sliding in smooth and unnoticed. Larry Legend beware.

-The top 5 seeds are set. Not much movement going on there.

-The only fight I see is between Toronto and Philly, which will be interesting because the teams are polar opposites: Toronto has a bunch of sharpshooting Europeans taking 3's and Philly has a bunch of muscular and powerful black guys taking it strong to the hoop. I see both teams winning a lot until the playoffs start with their contrasting styles, but it was hard to pick against Chris Bosh-Jose Calderon which was so effective before Bosh got hurt. But since Philly plays such a strong inside game, that tends to be more consistent than perimeter-oriented teams like Toronto and that consistently could factor into close games when the two teams are a half game apart. Not that Toronto is completely perimeter-oriented when they have a freakin' beast inside in Bosh.


West

First, I'd like to state the obvious and say how absolutely insanely close the Western race is. It's absolutely ridiculous. And now with Golden State only a half-game above 9th seed Denver, this is absolutely insane. Oh, I already used that phrase. I'll let my seedings do the talking:

1(?). ???
2(?). ???
3(?). ???
4(?). ???
5(?). ???
6(?). ???
7(?). ???
8(?). ???

9(?). ???

Within two days the entire lineup could look completely different than it is currently. I have absolutely no idea which team is going to get hot and which team is going to have a Dirk-esque injury and which team will finally play to their potential. All nine teams are really really good, even Denver. I just don't know. Thinking about it makes my head hurt. And makes me giddy thinking about how awesome NBA games and highlights will be until the end of the season. And then the playoffs will somehow be even more amazing. Basically, no matter how shitty my real life is right now, the Western Conference playoffs race will make it just that much better.

Ok, that was a lame way to predict the West. It's too late (early?) and I'm tired. I'll make sure to engage in long, intense discussions with my colleagues and come back with a real prediction. Stay tuned.

Streaking

Uhhh...I planned for this entry to be written last week when this actually mattered, but I'll finish it anyways for funsies.

The Rockets won a NBA-history-2nd-best 22 games then proceeded to get destroyed by a Ray Allen-less Boston team. KG made sure the streak ended, and you can see signs of KGness from their defense. Boston played insanely stifling defense (which I think will lead them over Detroit to the Finals if KG is alive and has his vocal chords working), and combined with a Houston team with inexperienced rooks, a cold T-Mac, and no Yao led to such an embarassing end to the streak that the media immediately tossed the streak away as headline news and went back to LakersLakersLakers.

And yes, Houston did win without Yao for the second half of the streak, and everyone got to see the finger-wags again, but I don't think the team will go very far in the playoffs Yao-less. Rafer Alston is not going to drop 25-7 per night (even though he's on my fantasy team and is awesome), T-Mac will be doubled, and Luis Scola and Carl Landry won't be enough to fill in for a 7-5 center who can score in the post consistently. The team can play great defense, better defense with Mutombo than Yao, and have more room in the paint for the smaller players to drive and make plays which before would have been Yao's fade-away jumpers. Still, great defense and never-been-out-of-the-first-round T-Mac don't add up against the rest of the ridiculously stacked West playoff teams. As of now they are the 3rd seed and would play 6th seed San Antonio, and I don't think Dike will be finger-wagging Tim Duncan too much. Houston did beat SA during the streak, but it was the very first game and Yao was still healthy *cough* pre-Olympic-tampering. Their last regular season meeting is this Sunday, and will be tough for Houston to win at San Antonio now that Parker is healthy and back to his crazy circus layups routine. I do like the Bobby Jackson pickup though. If he can rain those 3's and play alongside Alston, T-Mac, Scola/Landry, and Dike, that's a very good if somewhat undersized Rockets five.

I also planned to write about the Hawks' 4-game losing streak earlier in the month, but the team has since seemingly found the urgency that never seemed to display itself in games even though most players on the team who talks to the press talk all the time about urgency (J-Chill, Joe, Horford), and you don't need me to point out the Highlight Factory battling for its first playoffs in a century and actually having a good chance because so many Eastern conference teams suck. Which will forever be repeated because it is ridiculous that the Hawks are actually in the playoffs right now; they would be 12th in the West right above the Clippers and T-Wolves.

Looking Below

As of Wednesday afternoon, the Hawks are 0.5 game ahead of Jersey and Chicago, 1.5 ahead of Indiana, and 2 full games ahead of Charlotte. This is a fight for the 8th seed that probably won't be settled until the last week or so. None of the teams have a legit chance of passing the 6th or 7th seed, Washington and Philly. Washington manages to be decent even without Butler, and with him coming back and Agent Zero itching to launch a few 3's before the playoffs start, they're nestled in at 6th, a couple games behind Toronto. Philly has been the dark horse, with no one predicting them to do any damage yet the quattro of AI2-Andre Miller-Thad-Mo Cheeks is winning games lately like nobody's business. I used to think Mo Cheeks was horrible, but he's definitely showing me up this season. Basically all that was to say that unless we change coaches before this weekend, we're not going any higher than 8th.

Now, to the teams that can take the 8th seed from the Hawks:
New Jersey (0.5GB) - The Brooklyn Nets can't get anything going lately after trading away J-Kidd. VC had a few good games immediately after the trade, but has since gone back to "I'm Vince Carter" mode. Richard Jefferson isn't good enough to carry a team with a crappy supporting cast, and Devin Harris is either still bothered by his injury or hasn't adjusted to the team yet. Even though they are the closest record-wise, the Nets have the least chance of overtaking the Hawks at the rate they're going, which I believe will continue until the end of the season.
Chicago (0.5GB) - Larry Hughes and Drew Gooden can actually make a team better?? Just kidding about Hughes, but Gooden has been playing with a chip on his shoulder (or a mexistache on the back of his head?) and his power hustle play along with a healthy Deng and an occasional hot streak from Ben Gorden is combining for W's. If this bunch of guys can gel, which has already been happening more quickly than expected, and if Kirk Hinrich can wake up, the Bulls can be pretty intimidating. I still can't decide if Scott Skiles made everyone overachieve the past few years or all the players are just severely underachieving this season, but right now they have enough pieces to still make a serious run at 8th.
Indiana (1.5GB) - Sometimes players just need a change of scenery. Mike Dunleavy is tearin' it up this season with a bunch of 30-point games already after having just one in his career before the trade from GS. Danny Granger is still underachieving IMO but is doing enough to win games, and Travis Diener is a half-way decent replacement for the turnover machine (Tinsley) though still not a real NBA PG starter. The white starting line-up that would make Jazz fans jealous of Diener, Dunleavy, Murphy, and Foster (along with a pale Granger) can get it done, and I wouldn't be surprised if they rise a few spots and seriously contend for the last spot.
Charlotte (2GB) - They're the Charlotte Bobcats! Michael Jordan "runs" the team. Yeah, a healthy duo of JRich and GWall (bad nick, whatever) can score with the best of them. But still, as I quote myself from a previous sentence, "They're the Charlotte Bobcats." I hope I don't eat my words in a few weeks...

Anyways, among the 4 teams below us, I think Chicago is our biggest threat followed by Indiana, with the Nets and Bobcats dropping off into tanking mode sometime before April. I hate the Eastern Conference. Among other things (ownership), the Leastern is preventing Woodson's firing. Though I can't complain about the Hawks somehow, somehow, somehow clinging to that 8th and last playoff spot.

Hawks @ Orlando Preview

Overall
Orlando: 40-24 (HM 18-12)
Atlanta: 26-36 (RD 7-24)

Last 10
Orlando: 7-3

• Best win: 103-85 @ Detroit. Ended Detroit's 10 game winning streak. Shot 65% from downtown. Held Detroit to 38% FG%.
  
• Worst loss: 95-104 vs. Golden State. Not a terrible loss, but the other two were on road in Toronto and Philly. Outrebounded 44-42. 20 turnovers. Scored only 59 points in last 3 quarters. Still shot 48% from downtown.
  

Hawks: 4-6

• Best win: 117-110 @ Golden State. Really fun to watch. Almost blew another tremendous lead but held on. The Salami actually played and scored 18 points. JJ returned from dead to register 27-8-8 including 3/4 from 3PT. Their starting guards combined for only 61 points.
  
• Worst loss: 93-108 @ Charlotte. Lost to Charlotte.
  

Season Series
Hawks lead 1-0
2 more meetings after tonight (both in Atlanta)

Where the players stand
Has JSmoove been in a coma? He was huge when we beat the Magic in December, but he seems off lately. Bibby too, but he's obviously still ailing from the heel injury. Marvin needs to...um...do something good. Anything. Horford needs to play more than 28 minutes. Joe's been playing great lately. He really looks like he wants it, and by example is the only way the soft-spoken Joe can lead. Chill is the only other player that really exudes urgency right now. Horford probably would if he wasn't on the bench all the time (damn you, Woodson).

Can we win?
Orlando has been holding down 3rd place all year, but Boston and Detroit get all the respect. The Magic can make it rain from beyond the arc (NBA 3rd best 38% on the year) . We cannot (NBA 28th best 34%). If we don't show up focused with a good game plan (I'm looking at you, Woody), expect a ton of wide open bombs from Rashaaaad, Hedo, and crew. We're dogs here, but a win in Orlando is not out of reach. Every win goes a long way towards making the post season, and we can't afford to not be focused or fold when they nail a few 3's in a row (it will happen). We can win, but I don't see it happening tonight. Bottom line, I think Woodson will play a major role in this game, which is always a bad thing. Prove me wrong, Mike.

Where have I heard this before?

Clearly, Sekou Smith (best beat writer in the world), woke up this morning fresh out of ideas. He then traveled into the future, read my blog post, and wrote this story. Seriously, kinda bizarre how we both ran with the exact same shtick today. Here's a few quotes:

"We've talked the talk for a long time now," Hawks captain and All-Star Joe Johnson said. "Now we've got to put up or shut up. We've got what amounts to a 20-game season facing us, and the bottom line is this: if we win more than we lose our chances of making the playoffs go up dramatically.

"If we can't find a way, somehow and someway, to get the job done, we can pack it up and head to the house."

I'm glad to see Joe Johnson really wants to "go home," but that doesnt' make any sense to me. Let's see what Woody has to say.

"Urgency has to be our rallying cry," Woodson said. "We've known for a long time what's out there for us if we were willing to step up to the challenge. So it's not like it's some mystery. How bad do we want it is the real question?

"That's the question that has to be answered right now. And the only place that's going to happen is on the court."

Interesting. Actually, this isn't interesting at all. They've been saying this rhetoric since before the season started. I agree with them, but they summed it up best. Talk is talk. Not to say this article was without any insight. Without Joe's quote, I never would've known that the Hawks' bottom line is winning more games than they lose. I always assumed that the Atlanta Dispirit and Woody came up with some Producers type plan after realizing that a losing team actually generates greater profits than a winning team.

Playoffs? You kiddin me? Playoffs?!

Hawks fans are a testy bunch right now. Losing 13/16 games (not counting the bizarre double header Saturday because, well, then the numbers don't look as bad) will do that. And , despite a brief vacation, we're still clinging to the 8th seed in the East. Based on our collective misery, it's as if Hawks fan have not realized this. Sure, our grip is tenuous. Yes, if it happens, it will probably be against KG and the Celtics. But, come on! Playoffs?! The Hawks? How are Hawks fans [sic] not thrilled about even the prospect of a playoff series?

Unfortunately, the players don't seem to realize how close we are either. I've read or heard their quotes. I know they are saying the right things about "urgency" and "wanting it so bad my loins burn" (I think that waz Zaza), but do they really get it? Have they been playing with the relentless effort needed to send this team to the post season? I don't think so. And, still, they have a chance. The team should easily be able to hold off Indiana, Chicago, New Jersey, and (sigh) Charlotte. Hollinger has Atlanta's playoff odds at 37% right now, with Indy and Chicago at about 28%. But the Hawks have shown repeatedly that they can't be relied on to do what they should be able to do. A few weeks ago, we were sitting pretty, well ahead of 9th place. We were a stones throw from 6th place, which would keep us from playing Boston or Detroit (worse than Boston for us, I think) in the first round. A couple of West Coast road trips didn't help (7-24 on the road...ouch), but I did not foresee the rapid fall back to crappy play and lottery obscurity (not really). That's why it's so frustrating. They should be able to keep the 8th spot, but hey should have been able to stay near 6th (FYI, Hollinger's odds for 6. Philly and 7. Wash -- 95+%). Enough wistful pondering and pessimistic optimism.

Bret Lagree at the top notch Hoopinion blog laid out his thoughts on our remaining schedule (as of 2/27). I was planning on doing something similar, but I'll keep it short (and the idea thievery low) and just throw out some numbers.

Seed. Team: Games left (Home games left); Games against teams with +.500 records

6. Wiz: 20 games left (10 home); 9 against +.500
7. 76ers: 19 (10); 10
8. Hawks: 20 (10); 6
9. Nets: 19 (9); 10
10. Bulls: 19 (12); 9
11. Bobcats: 19 (6); 10
12. Pacers: 19 (11); 4

Except for the Pacers and maybe the Bulls, we have the best setup of the bunch. 14 of our final 20 games are against teams with losing records (just like us!).

We've been over this, and I know I'm repeating myself, but I know they can do it. They should do it. I don't have much confidence that they will do it, but dammit, we need to be more excited that they might do it! The. Hawks. Might. Make. The. NBA. Playoffs. Still, nobody goes to the games. The fans I talk to or read are sullen and defeated. We all want to bash Woody and/or Billy (don't worry--we'll get to that eventually). Lamenting over Chris Paul is never far away. As Hawks fans, we're trained to be cynical and pessimistic (realistic). But it hasn't been brighter in Hawksville for years. We are so close to the playoffs. We may lose more games than we win and still get there, but isn't the playoffs the ultimate goal? I don't see excitement among the fans, but I should. Let's get pumped, people.

Atlanta: Where playoffs happen.