Wednesday, March 26, 2008

MW or MVP?

Marvin Williams doesn't deserve to start for the Hawks. I just saw him contribute to a frustrating loss on the road against Chicago, and I'm pissed off. He's just not good enough, and his limited skillset does not mesh well with the team. Yeah, when a player is shooting like 60% on 18-22 footers for a 3 or 4 game stretch, that's fine and I think most teams will take that. But when the shooting is inconsistent, you have to make up for that by driving the ball and making plays or hustling your tail off for rebounds. Marvin Williams has a 1% success rate of scoring a basket, getting fouled, or assisting an easy layup when he drives towards the hoop. He is just that bad off-the-dribble. And for a guy of his athleticism and length to average 5 rebounds, that's pretty pathetic. So when his shot isn't falling, and it usually takes 5 or 6 misses each game for him to realize that his shot is off, he'll just float around or hastily drive the ball in which usually ends up in a turnover or a blocked layup attempt.

I think the problem with Marvin is his arrogance. Have you ever seen him walk? He looks like a freakin' duck! He has so much swagger it's ridiculous when you think about how he plays. He thinks he's the shit because he was a great college player on a championship team and starts in the NBA, has no idea that he is worthless compared to the two PGs picked after him, and does not feel compelled at all to work extra hard to prove his worth. All of this has led to him marginally improving his shot and rebounding each year while Deron Williams and Chris Paul have been making leaps and bounds each year in their playmaking and leadership. While both of those players are already in MVP discussions, Marvin is still in some people's "biggest draft bust" list and the problem is, do you see him improving his game much in the next few years? I sure don't. He'll just keep swaggering around like a duck and never look around at all the critics accurately describing how bad he is. I say we sell him high now, not that any team is high on him but I think we can still manage to get a decent player in his replacement. I can see a team being lulled into believing Marvin's upside (or mirage of one). Still, it would be better than keeping him as a starter so that everyone is constantly reminded of how badly Billy Knight screwed up in that draft, and then try to dump him off in a few years as a meaningless add-on in a trade.

So since we have established Marvin Williams does not deserve to start (I barely think he should even come off the bench, and only when the other guys are tired or in foul trouble), here are 2 solutions for the starting five:
1. Mike Bibby-Joe Johnson-Josh Childress-Josh Smith-Al Horford: If the 2nd pick of the '05 draft sucks, why not start both 1st-rounders of the '04 draft instead? Josh Childress as a 6th man works well because he provides desperately-needed energy and great scoring percentage and rebounding, but couldn't he be just as good, if not better, if he were starting alongside fellow '04 1st-rounder Josh Smith, Bibby, Joe, and Horford? With Marvin starting, J-Smoov already had to move to the 4 so J-Chill wouldn't change that, and he'd be a great scorer and rebounder, and Mr. Baseline would receive easy layup passes from Bibby and Joe to start the game instead of having to wait for more than half a quarter for Mike Woodson to realize that Williams is contributing nothing on offense or defense. J-Chill is averaging practically the same amount of steals (0.9) and blocks (0.6) as Marvin (1.0, 0.4) with fewer minutes, and his shooting percentage is ridiculous. In any case, we better not ever trade Childress because he'd average 30 on 60% shooting starting on a decent team. As for J-Chill's 6th man role, I think Salami can be a decent fill-in as an offensive spark off the bench, and Jeremy Richardson should play more.
2. Mike Bibby-Joe Johnson-Josh Smith-Al Horford-Zaza Pachulia: Woodson has been experimenting with Horford and Zaza on the court at the same time, and I like it every time I see it. We have great offensive rebounding in Zaza and great defensive rebounding in Horford, and both have decent short-range jumpers and good passing, esp. Horford. This would move Horford back to his natural 4 and J-Smoov back to his natural 3, though with two other big bodies on offense J-Smoov may not have as much space to maneuver for his great inside moves. In any case, the Hawks let other teams get way too many offensive rebounds and put-backs and Marvin isn't helping anything. J-Chill can still come off the bench as one of the best 6th man in the league, and Marvin can be the 9th man behind Richardson.



You can't mention Marvin's failings without mentioning Chris Paul's achievements. He's my MVP for this season over Kobe, Lebron, and KG. I mean, this guy is absolutely sick, capable of going for 35-17 every night. I mean, he made David West an All-Star. Who? And is that Tyson Chandler I see hustling and making plays? I'm confident that Chris Paul can go to any lottery team and make them a playoffs team instantly, and make some role players All-Stars in the way he did so with David West. West would still be unheard of if he wasn't playing with Paul. Like everyone who was fawning over Steve Nash the last few years, with stats of how he improves his entire team being shown for every nationally broadcasted Phoenix game, I feel the same way about Chris Paul. In fact, I still think he's underrated and not talked about enough about how good he is. His Hornets are currently the top team in the ridiculous West and still no one is talking about them. I have yet to see him perform in the playoffs, but if he can match what he's doing in the regular season, I think he can carry his team to the finals. Kobe has Gasol, Bynum, and Lamar Odom on his team. Lebron is playing .500 ball in the Eastern conference. KG has Pierce and Allen and a stacked steam similar to the Lakers. I expect either Kobe or Lebron to take the prize, but ultimately Chris Paul is just that much better of a basketball player and teammate, and if he doesn't win this year he should win the next three.

2 comments:

bonitis said...

first of all, jsmoove is a natural 3? really? you dont want him playing down in the post? he thinks he can play the 3, and we all know he wants to shoot jump shots all day long. that is bad! just because hes athletic and not fat doesnt mean he shouldnt be a 4. he is a 4. his shot blocking and overall defensive contribution would plummet if he was forced to guard small forwards on the perimeter.

second of all, 1% success rate when driving? arrogance because he walks funny? you can do better than that. i too think marvin is disappointing. i think a lot of it is his over-utilization by woodson, but thats another story. something that can be evaluated by watching games or looking at numbers. but attributing his poor play to funny-walking arrogance? the guy has a wingspan like 5 inches longer than his height. thats a big reason he walks funny. maybe hes arrogant. i dont know. he doesnt act arrogant in interviews or on the court. i dont think he chooses to feature his offense extensively--i think he is encouraged by coach(es). besides, do you really think hes naive enough to believe he can be arrogant? yeah, he won a national championship, but he wasnt even a starter. hes disppointed his entire NBA career and will never live down CP3 (you know, you dont HAVE to bring him up if you talk about marvin. just sayin). that doesnt sound like someone who would act arrogant.

he scraps, he works, i think he tries. hes also 21 freaking years old. is he proving he was worth the 2nd pick? clearly not. and he probably never will. but its not his fault billy made a huge error. he needs to look past that and become the best player he can be. i think the ceiling is still high, but woody needs to stop pretending that he was deserving of the 2nd pick.

i know i havent been posting. i have a few ideas tumbling around, but i havent gotten around to it. so poo-poo to me for criticizing you so heavily. but this reads like a pissed off rant, not something informed and insightful. thats fine, so sorry for knocking you. im just sayin you can do better.

Grundle said...

ok, i'll compromise and say j-smoov is like a 3.5. at least he plays like one, floating around the perimeter and occasionally backing a smaller forward down for a hook or lay-in. i would like for him to develop a long-range jumper so that he would have to be guarded tighter so he can penetrate easier, but definitely not something he should be using late in close games which he does.

and i still don't think he's big enough to be a 4. the only reason he's a 4 is because centers had gone out of fashion and NBA has gotten smaller for the past decade (improving in last couple years), so 4's have moved to center and big 3's (or 3.5 like j-smoov) are forced to move to 4. j-smoov cannot guard or has a pretty hard time guarding 4s like tim duncan, kg, chris bosh, boozer, dirk, amare, or even knickerbocker zach randolph. all of these guys are natural 4's, but often play the center position due to the lack of one on their team, like horford. a lot of these guys are just too heavy or strong for j-smoov to guard. j-smoov is (or should be) too mobile and active on defense to be bogged down guarding a low-post player.

a lot of j-smoov's shot blocking comes in transition or help defense, often blocking smaller players penetrating or running a fast break. though he's such a talented blocker he can block anybody in the game.


as for marvin, i definitely did not have any numbers or tape to back up my rant, which it definitely was just a rant. 1% may be close though. i do hope he improves, and from now on if i complain about him i'll def back up what i'm saying and not just pull arrogance out of my ass.