May the Series Start TONIGHT

A playoff series doesn't start until the road team wins a game. LET'S GO HAWKS!!

Here are some things that the Hawks need to do and/or not do to have a chance in this game:
1. "Don't be satisfied." Maintain intensity! The Hawks love to start halves slow and have to make up a double-digit deficit. They need to want it for 48 minutes, and it starts with Horford and JSmoov, guys who provide energy through leadership and insane dunks, respectively. It's hard to measure intangibles like leadership, but Horford's effect on the team since the playoffs started cannot be understated. Playing that Rocky video, showing up Paul Pierce who could only respond by flashing menacing hand gestures, backing up Zaza's foreheadbutting, all of these and so many more things are influential on a young inexperienced team with a bad inexperienced coach.
2. Be mentally and emotionally strong. Do not waiver to the raucous Gardens crowd or the stifling physical Celtics defense. You know the crowd will be into it, and the Big 3 and company will come back with a vengeance at home. The Hawks were affected in the first two games and backed off when confronted with a hard foul or negative reaction from the crowd, but they need to just focus and play their game. The ATL home crowd really lifted the team and provided so much energy, esp. for JSmoov, but without the Sixth Man, the team has to keep a strong will without the help of twenty thousand fans. No one will expect Woodson to help the team in this aspect (or any other aspect?), but once again, the likes of Horford need to keep the team going when the going gets tough. And no matter how much momentum the Hawks gained at home, they'll most certainly be playing from behind in a hostile environment on the road. The Hawks weren't good playing from behind in the regular season, but showed they have the toughness in Games 3 and 4. I hope they can pull it off again on the road.
3. Continue doing what's been successful. Well, duh. But nevermind other NBA teams, the Hawks need to be reminded. Push the pace whenever possible; feed the ball into the post and let Horford and JSmoov force it to the rim or dish out to open shooters; play smart, hustle defense. Boston's offense will come out with more spark and aggression on their home court, and will probably run more crisply at home with the extra pass or strong drive. That will most likely mean lots of open shooters since the Hawks haven't really been playing the long range shot that well, Boston's shots just weren't falling in at Phillips. So it'd be good to see the Hawks players not miss their defensive assignments and give up easy baseline dunks or wide open shots to Rondo, Allen, or Posey.
4. Let the bench play. Acie has looked great all series even though he hasn't played at all the entire season, Zaza has brought toughness and timely rebounding, even Solomon can block a shot or two even though I have a heart attack everytime he goes near the ball. This is esp. important on the road, when the starters will be tired and worn down by the defense and crowd and the bench will need to give them a lift.
5. Give the ball to Joe. Enough said.

Game 4 Fracas

ESPN (TV so no link) is reporting that there will be no suspensions or fines as a result of the game 4 near-fight (blind Boston bias alert). I was expecting Marvin and Perkins to be suspended for stepping on the court (albeit barely), but suspending KG for shoving the ref was a long shot. I guess Stern is no longer applying the bench-leaving rule without exception. I bet many Suns fans are pissed at this ruling, and it will only fuel their conspiracy theories.

A Perkins/Marvin suspension would probably benefit the Hawks in game 5. Perkins was a rebounding force early in game 4, and Marvin was, well, let's just say that starting J-Chill instead of Marvin wouldn't be such a bad thing for the Hawks. Nevertheless, I do not think anybody should have been suspended. Of course, I thought the same thing about the Suns-Spurs incident last year. The league's inconsistency is a little puzzling. Either they were affected by last year's backlash, or there is a massive conspiracy to keep the Celtics in the playoffs (possibly involving robots).

>>Update<<

Story at ajc.com.

2 - 2

Sometime before the next game I might regain my composure. I might put on some clothing (all ripped to shreds) and stop screaming. I might get the haunting image of that Joe three over the fallen corpse of Leon Powe out of my head. I might write something meaningful on this site. But probably not. See you all Friday.

Cawwwwwww!

Wow. I can't say I expected that. Forget the first two games, the series tally, and even the rest of the series. Tonight is the Hawks' night. Tonight those high-flyin' rapscallions did the unthinkable. Tonight, Philips Arena was rockin' like never before. I have no desire to analyze the game, to offer predictions for Monday, or even to recap my experience at the Highlight Factory. Tonight, just bathe in the glory. This is the best Hawks win this millennium, and it may not get any better for a while. Yeah, I know--melodramatic. Whatever. Here are some pictures.



Big Al with a big slam.

(L) GET FIRED UP! (R) The ATL Drumline invades our section; bafoons rejoice.

I think this just about sums it up. J-Smoove went off. He went off.

Los Pensamientos Rapidos

Hey, I wrote "infrequent ramblings" in the header. Don't say I didn't warn you. End of the semester matters have really prohibited me from spending any time posting, but I'll be able to update with some semblance of regularity in a week or so. To tide you over, here's a few quick thoughts.

1. I wanted to do some in depth coverage of the Falcons draft, but...um, I didn't. Our obvious needs are DL (excluding DE), OL, and QB. I want Jake Long, but our chances look slim there. By "slim", I mean "nonexistent". I hope Dorsey falls to us, but that's looking less likely. If Dorsey isn't available at 3, all hell breaks loose. Ideally, I'd want us to trade down so we could get Sedrick Ellis somewhere around picks 8-10. That would be great, but the trade front has been pretty quiet (of course, what do I know?). I'm surprised there aren't more teams clamoring to move up for RunDMC or Chris Long. Both are great prospects, but they don't fit in with our needs whatsoever.

There are a couple of postJL first round OL options (Ryan Clady, Jeff Otah), but I'm not wild about any of them. Maybe I'm just bitter after Jake Long spurned me, and I now curse all first round linemen. As for QB, please, please, Senor Dimitroff--don't draft Matt Ryan. I was pimpin' him like a young Cambodian boy last fall, but I have come to my senses. He is apparently "smart" (racist media?), but even his strongest supporters admit to his lack of skillz and upside. They keep repeating "He doesn't have the strongest arm or the fastest legs, BUT..." like it is a badge of honor! I don't think it is. I'd much prefer we take a flyer early second round because Ryan is far from a sure thing. If we pick him third and make him the face of the franchise, he better be a sure thing. There are plenty of moderately rated QB options to pick from after Ryan: Flacco of the laser rocket CANNON arm, Brohm of the incredible dropping draft stock, Woodson of the remembrance of things past, Henne, Ainge, or Booty of the D-1 contendahs. I would much prefer one of these guys second round than M-Rye third overall (in this order: Brohm, Flacco, Henne, Woodson, Ainge, Booty).

Unfortunately, my nightmare scenario looks likely -- Rams select Dorsey and we don't have a trading partner. I think that forces Atlanta to pick Ryan (and I pray the Ravens or someone wants to trade for him post-selection). We don't want to make a glaring reach pick, QB is a position of need, and it's probably a good PR move. Falcons fans seem pretty split about Ryan, but most of the (arrogance alert) "more informed" fans seem against him. As for the rest of the draft, I love how many picks we have. It should be fun, and somebody is going to get a steal with Tashard Choice.

2. The Braves beat the Mets tonight, and I'm starting to feel pretty good about the team. I wish I posted my predictions on time because you would all bow to my prescience (Yunel + Jair = joy + incredibly baby names). I'll do a roster run-through eventually, addressing my thoughts past and present, so you can look forward to that (in September!).

3. The Hawks are in the playoffs?
Awesome!
Oh, I missed the first two games?
Yeah, but those were road games and--
By more than 20 points?!
Both times?!
Well, shit. I'm glad I didn't watch those games!*

*Not true. My masochism knows no bounds.

I'll keep it at that. I was not as brief as I planned, and now I'm going to fail some college crap. Thanks a lot, you guys.

>>Update 4/26 3:03 PM<<

Miami selected Jake Long (surprise!), and word is St. Louie is planning on taking Chris Long. There is some talk of them trading down, but the fruit of Howie's loins looks like he's the pick. That should open us up to take Glenn Dorsey, but I can feel it...we're going to take Matt Ryan. We are going to. I'm scared. That said, I could definitely be wrong about M-Rye, and I will support him on our team. I won't spontaneously combust if we pick Ryan, but please, please pick Dorsey! Please!

>>Update 4/26 3:19 PM<<

Dammit. Dammit. Dammit. The fact that we took Ryan when Dorsey was still available hurts my soul. My soooouuuuullllll.

I Thinking Fanhood

I missed all 3 games tonight, and so far have only watched maybe 6 quarters of the playoffs. Damn. I didn't mention in the last post but I unwittingly passed out just as the Hawks-Celtics game started because of April twentieths festivities. I’m ashamed of myself. I question my status as a die-hard fan. For missing game 1, not because of my prediction that they'll lose in 5 or get swept. I shouldn't have to think a team will win games or playoff series just because of how much I loves that team. I shouldn’t have to think the Hawks can take 2 or more games from the Celtics. I shouldn't have to think that the Hawks can take this series from the Celtics just because I’m a die-hard fan when I know it'll take short of a miracle, and I don’t believe in miracles.

Die-hard fans don't have to be blind about their team's chances or clueless about the other teams' skills and abilities, it just means that they'll stand by and live by every hardship and success that the team goes through no matter what, or rather, "stubbornly resisting change or clinging to a seemingly hopeless or outdated cause." I go through Billy Knight's drafts and trades, I go through shots of Mike Woodson's blank went confused face during televised games, I go through Josh Smith's fickle and negative attitude, I go through Marvin Williams's 12.1/5.3/1.4 and not Chris Paul's 18.2/9,5/4.5, I go through all the bad losses to worse teams; then I also go through JSmoov's blocks and alley-oops, Joe Johnson’s All-Star play, Al Horford's ROY campaign, Josh Childress’s afro and baseline mastery, Zaza Pachulia's fashion style, and 37 wins to finally get into the playoffs. What I didn't go through was the Hawk's first playoff loss in 9 years, and because I fell asleep on a sunny Sunday afternoon?? It's hard being a die-hard.

West preview coming up before game 3s start, hopefully. No empty promises though.

Game 2 Adjustments

I was busy last week and did not have any time during the weekend to write previews before the playoffs started, so I apologize for the empty promises. But really, the playoffs are about games 2 on since game 1 is more of a litmus test as players and coaches play their normal game and see what kind of adjustments they need to make for game 2 and the rest of the series. So I'll still be writing my general feelings for each matchup and then add a few adjustments that I think teams should make after game 1. I was so busy I also didn't even really have time to sit down and watch each game, which is a mortal sin for any real NBA fan to not watch every playoff game from start to finish. That's especially true for this season, the best and most exciting season I've personally witnessed with all the huge trades that completely changed the playoff landscape and made the West insanely competitive. I feel for Golden State, who would made a compelling 1st round series to watch, but I wouldn't put them in and take out Dallas or Denver as those two teams are ultimately better and aren't too shabby to watch either.

East

(1) Boston* vs. (8) Atlanta [*-won game 1]
Preview
I wonder how many people expected the Hawks to take even a game. Not many, if you followed either team and isn't a die-hard Atlanta fan. The Hawks get a pat on the beak for finally making the playoffs, but personally I find it meaningless if you're going to get swept in the first round. Yeah, our young players will get valuable experience, but how much experience if you're going to get humiliated for 4 games? I do hope this will build on the team and take them further in the season in future years. I also expected us to get outhussled, outplayed, and outcoached, and nothing in game 1 changes my opinion. And do I expect Mike Woodson to make any brilliant changes to his game-plan? Doc Rivers vs. Woodson chess match? That's like a 5-year-old missing all rooks, knights, and bishops going against an adult with 3 queens.

I do give mad props to Horford, seemingly the only big-time player on the Hawks (lookin' at you, Bibby) whose 2 NCAA championships and first NBA playoff game shows how mentally tough and talented my ROY is. He'll be a great player, All-Star caliber, for many years to come. Even Woodson can't screw that up because most of what Horford brings to the table he already had or developed himself (great hustle and smart rebounding, nice shooting touch, etc. etc. etc.).

Adjustments
Boston: Make sure KG doesn't have an aneurysm from the playoffs energy. That's about it. Both Ray Allen and Paul Pierce can go down and I still think KG, Rondo, and Cassell can beat the Hawks, though not in blowout-fashion as currently is the case.
Atlanta: Nothing that'll prevent losses, only the margin. Joe and Bibby's shooting won't stay dismal the entire series, but unless Joe can put up like 50/8/10 we have little chance. And there's really no chance of Joe scoring that much as the swarming Celtics defense would surely double- and triple-team to stop him. Other than some extremely hot shooting by the 2 starting guards, our role players (J-Chill, Marvin, Zaza) can't create enough plays or generate points on their own. I say we throw Salami and Jeremy in there and see if they can knock down a few 3's in playoff atmosphere. What's the loss? The Hawks can't possibly lose 5 in this series. I'm absolutely positive.

Bottom line: I mean, obviously I'd love for the Hawks to win, or at least take one game, but things aren't looking good.
Prediction: Boston in 4, I mean...5?

(2) Detroit vs. (7) Philadelphia*
Preview
I knew Philly was going to make it tough on Detroit, but I definitely did not expect them to take game 1 at the Palace. I thought the Detroit's great starting 5 and deep bench would nullify the quick and physical game A.M. and A.I. bring to the series. Detroit should come out stronger and stay that way for the rest of the series, and I still don't understand how Philly wins games, esp. against the likes of Detroit. This is a good test for Detroit in the first round as they would have beaten Washington, Toronto, or the Hawks very soundly. If they somehow lose to Mo Cheeks's Iverson-less Sixers, Boston is definitely in the finals.

Adjustments
Detroit: Turn up the intensity and stay focused. I don't see how the Pistons can underestimate Philly even though they're the only Eastern team that has given them trouble this season. Their guards will eventually get hot and I don't think Philly will be able to score enough points against a tough Detroit defense, that is, when they're focused.
Philadelphia: Continue the fast-paced, aggressive play. Get the rooks Thad and Lou Williams more involved, and continue the tight defense on Rip and Chauncey.

Bottom line: How many more playoff series and championships could the Pistons have won if they maintained focus for every game? I think they'll find their focus after losing the first game at home, and bring their A game which will ultimately be too much for Philly.
Prediction: Detroit in 7

(3) Orlando vs. (6) Toronto
Preview: I don't sound as smart saying it after game 1 happened, but I knew Jameer Nelson was going to be the X-factor for the series. He seriously outplayed Toronto's double-headed PG monster of Ford and Calderon after doing the opposite in the regular season, and along with the fact that no one can block out Superman led to an easy win. If Nelson continues his play, then along with Howard, Heeeedoooo, and Rashard, that team is too much for Toronto. Bosh is a spectacular player, but doesn't have enough help in the frontcourt which lets Magic defenders solely focus on him. I mean, did you really expect Bargnani or Nesterovic to do major damage (Rasho did have a nice 16/8 in game 1)? Both teams shoot lights-out from 3, but the frontcourt is what makes the difference in the matchup. And Stan Van Gundy vs. Sam Mitchell doesn't look so good for the Raptors either.

Adjustments
Orlando: Keep up whatever they're doing to mess with Ford and Calderon, because if those two go off then the entire team feeds off their passing and the Raptors instantly become more dangerous. The Magic can also improve their defense of 3-pointers.
Toronto: Get Ford and Calderon going! That opens up room for Bosh, who should also be more aggressive and go at Dwight Howard. In fact, the entire team needs to go straight for Howard and get him in foul trouble so that he doesn't corral every rebound that lands within 8 feet of him.

Bottom line: With ineffective PGs, Toronto doesn't have enough firepower to match Orlando. If Ford and Calderon can be effective, the matchup is a different story. Ultimately, Howard is an unstoppable beast and the guys around him, Hedo and Rashard, are too good.
Prediction: Orlando in 6


(4) Cleveland* vs. (5) Washington
Preview: What's with all the trash talk? Who does DeShawn Stevenson think he is? His idiotic attacks on the Cavs will only fuel them and make them focus and play harder, though it does make for a more interesting series. 1-for-9 shooting doesn't help your case, it only makes you a laughingstock in the opposing arena. Without the distractions, and the return of Agent Zero and a healthy Butler, I thought the Wizards would take a close series. After all, you can't lose 3 straight years, right? Sorry, Agent Zero, but after game 1 I have to swing my prediction to Cleveland. I expected the Cavs' traded players to be somewhat ineffective in their first playoff series with the team, but I guess it doesn't matter if you have the King. And even if West, Szczerbiak, Big Ben, or Joe Smith are ineffective, Cleveland still has Varejao and Gibson on the bench, both guys who were important to their Finals run last year. With Arenas coming off the long injury and coming off the bench, the Wizards don't have that go-to guy who'll score important buckets or get fouled to match Lebron.

Adjustments
Cleveland: Get everyone around the King going offensively. It seems every night only half of the role players are on their game while the other half is floundering and missing easy shots.
Washington: Give Brendan Haywood more touches. He's been very effective against Big Ben and Ilgauskas, and can follow up his own shot. Also get at least 2 of the big 3 going. Butler and Jamison seem content to launch 3's, and need to be more aggressive and get Lebron or the Cavs big men in foul trouble. Esp. Butler, who has not been close to putting up the numbers before his late-season injury. He can swing a close game by himself, and needs to establish himself more in the series. Defensively, no one can guard Lebron so the Wiz have to focus on every other player and make sure they can't support Lebron and thus force him to do all the work himself.

Bottom line: The Wizards trash-talking was a bad idea. They haven't backed it up at all. Lebron is unstoppable and we are all witnesses.
Prediction: Cleveland in 7

(1) Boston vs. (4) Cleveland - Prediction: Boston in 5
(2) Detroit vs. (3) Orlando - Prediction: Orlando in 7

(1) Boston vs. (3) Orlando - Prediction: Boston in 6


West previews coming up tomorrow, hopefully before the 3 game 2s start.

A random Thursday night

I promise to have a full NBA playoff matchups preview before the games start on Saturday (later edit: Not happening, will instead have a "mid-first-round" preview).

As for the Braves, John Smoltz is God. I don't know any other pitcher who can change his delivery mid-game because he's like 50 and got worn out early, then proceed to throw nothing but fastballs until each batter reaches 2 strikes, and then finish them off on the next pitch with that dank nasty slider. 3000 K's here we come! He may be the only thing I have to look forward to right now as far as the Braves are concerned, other than making bets on how many more games it'll take for Tex to go over the Mendoza line (8-10) and Hampton to throw one pitch in a live game(~300).

Would Drew or bonitis like to give a Falcons/NFL draft preview before next weekend? Lazy bastards. I'd volunteer but I don't know jack on this topic. All I know is we should obviously draft Colt Brennan 3rd pick.

Smell the Excitement!

It looks our first team Zalad field trip is on for tonight's Hawks - Celtics game at the Phil.

The game could be a good preview of the, ahem, sure-to-competitive possible playoff series, depending on the minutes we see form the green guys. Sadly, showing a lack of effort and focus is a bigger concern with the team in danger of losing its playoff spot. Weak stretch run aside, the magic number is down to two with two games remaining--let's make it one!

I hope to post a game/field trip recap (with pictures?) later tonight.

Under Controll-ey

Sweeping the Braves slaughter and Soriano injury under the rug...there's actually some good news out of Atlanta today!

Georgia Tech
First of all, in the only baseball story of the day (Bra-aves?), congratulations to the Jackets for beating the #14 Bulldogs 9-4 in Atlanta today. Deck McGuire got the win with a solid start, and Luke Murton was the big hitter (4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI). The beesball Jackets move to 26-7 (9-6). I would have more, but I couldn't make it to the game today. Everybody else did, though:

Game notes:
Largest crowd (4,609) in Russ Chandler Stadium history.

Nice. Not to be outdone, the GT softball team swept UGA in a doubleheader today. Good work, ladies.

Falcons
The new administration made a great move today by re-signing linebacker Michael Boley (ajc.com brief). The details aren't out yet, so no idea on length or money. Nevertheless, I'm thrilled this happened. Boley is the best defender on our team (except for maybe a healthy John Abraham), and one of the most underrated linebackers in the NFL. He's atheletic, strong, durable, and extremely versatile--good in run coverage, pass coverage, and even pressuring the QB. I'm glad he will continue his midfield patrol-ey.

Journey to the Underworld

According to Greek mythology, Orpheus was in love with Eurydice. When she died, he journeyed to the underworld and played his lute so beautifully that the most fiendish of creatures wept and granted his love a reprieve, on one condition: he could not look behind him to see her following him until they left the underworld. Of course, like any good tragedy, Orpheus could not resist temptation and he looked behind himself, dooming Eurydice back to hell.

The Braves are Eurydice and we fan, with our high pre-season prediction, are Orpheus. After two seasons in hell, we were granted a reprieve. And the Schaffer suspension, Soriano injury, and embarrassing losses to start the season (both through poor play and bad luck) have sent our love crashing back down. I'm not saying some sort of metaphysical essence that surrounds the Braves fandom has caused this (I'm more inclined to blame a team OBP of .324 and a bullpen that hastily traded Tyler Yates because of its supposed depth). However, I'm sure it's not helping.

Yes, week and a half into the season -- I'm not conceding anything. However, these are troubling trends that have continued from the previous two seasons of putridity -- our offense comes in spurts and our bullpen is atrocious (to put it nicely).

I'll let someone come up with the solutions, though, a collapse by the Mets and Phillies is certainly a plausible one.

Go Braves.

Hawks - Pacers, halftime/postgame

Halftime

Come on! Where the hell is the defense?? Indiana is pretty much our only threat at 3GB (Jersey at 4), and we can't play enough defense to not let Jeff Foster, freakin' Jeff Foster, go 4-4 for 10 points at half? Woodson, I'm looking at you!! The Hawks players look like they're hustling on defense, so when Jeff Foster gets wide open lay-ins that means they weren't prepared defensively. Seriously, Jeff Foster and Ronald "Flip" Murray? Offensive prowesses (is that a word?) that the athletic Hawks can't stop? I mean, I figured that Mike Dunleavy would burn us, but come on, how can Woody not prepare the team enough against the team posing the most threat to our playoff chances? And he was touted (a long long time ago) for his defensive coaching schemes.

Adjustments for the second half:
1. Help! Anything resembling help defense would be nice. Leaving an entire wing of the court open probably will mean giving up 2 easy points (see: Jeff Foster).
2. Be quicker on defending the pick-and-roll. Travis Diener has been weaving a maze and hypnotizing the Hawks defenders.
3. I haven't had much to complain about our offense lately, which has been flowing like I've never seen the Hawks do so before these last 10-15 games or so. But if we have to turn into the Nuggets to make up for our defensive deficiencies, then we need to get even better on offense.
3a. Bibby needs to create more and heat up with his shooting, and not just stand outside the arc and shoot a contested 3 every 4 or 5 plays.
3b. If our shooters can get hot and spread the floor, I'd like to see JSmoov continue what he was doing in the first half, driving in deep and slamming sick-ass dunks on the Pacer white boys. And he didn't take any of his vintage Camby-esque jump shots that usually brick, which is amazing because he feels obligated to take at least 3 or 4 of those per game (+ ~1 airball 3). In fact, I'd say JSmoov and Camby are equally good (bad?) shooters, which is saying something.
3c. If JSmoov is driving it in deep, everyone collapses and JChill can get his easy baseline dunks and lay-ups, or JSmoov can pass it out to Joe and Bibby to sink in the 3.


More after the game, as well as first-round analysis for the Boston series.



Postgame

Just kidding about the first-round analysis (good save, Drew)! I should have known better. Though I definitely didn't lose this game for us as we pretty much lost at the end of the 2nd quarter. Even if you have 2 more quarters to work with and are only down by 15, no scoring runs and no defensive stops = loss. Once again, credit Woody with the halftime defensive adjustments and motivational tactics to get his team going. *sarcastic applause* I was actually hoping Joe would just completely take over towards the end. He and Salami could have passed it back and forth on the 3-point line until one of them got open to shoot it.

I didn't know until after the halftime part of the post that we could have ended Indiana's chances with a win. We sure played like a team with a playoff drought determined to seal the deal and reach it for the first time in 9 years. *sarcastic appluase* I do hope that this will slap the Hawks on the beak and wake them up for the rest of the regular reason and hopefully beyond... literally, not a horrible joke. We are definitely still in good position if we can take one from either Boston or Orlando and Indiana loses to Philly and Washington. Umm... yeah... we're in good position. At least the Hawks only have one team to watch, since New Jersey won't take all of Boston, Cleveland, Toronto. Here comes a week of scoreboard watching!

What's up Cox?

There are many reasons factoring into the Braves' sub-.500 play to start the young season. The offense isn't clicking yet, the relief pitching has been subpar, and a few unlucky breaks here and there swings a close game to the opposing team (all losses by 1 run). But 3 losses to the Nationals and Pirates? Are there underlying reasons not indicated by stats that could be affecting the Braves' poor play? I say so, and I think it starts with the managing.

Don't get me wrong, Bobby Cox is a great manager. I have great respect for him and his soon-HOF career, the way he approaches the game and influences his players. Bobby will get 100% out of a player or lineup that many managers can only bring out maybe half that potential. But he does not know how to manage his pitchers during games. Too many times have I seen him keep in a starter an inning too late to lose a lead, and too many times have I seen him pull out a starter an inning or two too early and then fumble with the bullpen to lose the same lead.

Take tonight's series opener with Colorado for instance. Glavine was breezing through their lineup, and so he stumbled in the 7th with a couple of walks, but he still had good stuff that kept the Rockies batters guessing and leading into easy groundouts and a couple of K's. Maybe Bobby wanted to protect Glavine's 42-year-old arm and keep it fresh for the whole season, or thought that he lost his stamina since it's still early in the season, but Glavine could have easily finished the inning after throwing less than 90 pitches. With one out, Bobby didn't have confidence Glavine could have finished off Yorvit Torrealba and Jayson Nix? Who? That way, Moylan could have pitched the 8th and not let Boyer dish up a hanger to Holliday to lose the game like he did with Nady and the Pirates opener. (I realize Moylan gave up Zimmerman's walk-off on Opening Night in D.C., but that fate was out of the his and the Braves' hands.)

Bobby needs to calm down when he takes out his starter and not try to showcase his entire bullpen every night. It's nice to intimidate other teams by showing how great and stacked our bullpen is, but if Bobby keeps doing his thing, we won't have a great or stacked bullpen by midsummer as he slowly breaks every reliever's arm and confidence by taking them out after 1 out. For example...

Pitchers	IP
J Jurrjens	5.1
J Bennett	0.2
M Acosta	1.0
P Moylan	0.1
R Ring	0.1
C Resop	0.1
W Ohman	1.0

How about...

Pitchers	IP
J Bennett	4.0
B Boyer	2.0
W Ohman	0.2
M Acosta	1.1
R Soriano	1.0
C Resop	0.1
R Ring	0.1
C Resop	0.1

Ok, the first box score came from a win, and the second one was because of Mike Hampton's body that was apparently replaced with balsa wood and wax after '05, but seriously, is Bobby thirsty for another record, this time the one for most relief pitchers yanked after 1 out in a season? I mean, I realize that it's hard to juggle a very stacked bullpen esp. at the beginning of the season, but is pulling everybody out for 1 out really the best way to see how they fit into the relief system? Maybe the Cox is such a good manager he only needs 1 out to determine a reliever's worth and role with the team. Or how about putting a reliever (with 42 career appearances) into left field (0 career appearances) in between outs? I know Bobby is a great influence and innovator of the manager position, but he was definitely over his head on that move. Moving along now to my personal favorite so far in 2008:

Pitchers	IP
T Glavine	5.0
C Resop	1.0
W Ohman	0.1
P Moylan	0.1
R Ring	0.1
M Acosta	0.2
J Bennett	1.1
R Soriano	1.0
B Boyer	2.0

Way to develop rhythm and consistency with your pitchers, Bobby! I will be disappointed in any Braves game, win or loss, that does not employ at least 5 relievers, 3 of whom must pitch only 1 out and no more. Oh, and at least 5 shots into the Braves dugout of the starting pitcher's sullen facial expression after being pulled too early.

I must emphasize that I still love Bobby and I think he's awesome, and I would definitely not rather have any other manager (except maybe Joe Morgan). But it'd be nice if someone told him that relievers can go longer than 10 pitches, or that right-handed relievers can actually get out a left-handed batter (and vice versa). And honestly, you don't have to use up 3 relievers for every right-left-right(handed) batter sequence. No, seriously. Still, I think the 7 games so far has shown plenty of promise and potential, and Zalad members do not panic after a measly 3-4 start. Mark Kotsay has exceeded my expectations already, and at least our defense has looked pretty good. And we still have one of the best left fielders in Chris Resop...

The Competiton

THE MUTTS:
An interesting team, to say the least. Their pitching is such a question mark beyond Santana (who, really, I don't want to talk about... the image of Frenchy vs. him makes me physically ill). Pedro is the New York version of Mike Hampton, John Maine has broken down in the second half for two straight seasons, Oliver Perez is a Brave slayer (sigh) but who knows if last year was a fluke or not, and everything from beyond there is a question mark. Mike Pelfry? El Duque? These don't look like the type of players a contending team is expected to pitch every two out of five games. Of course, neither are the idiots we threw out last year (Redman? Jo-Jo Reyes? Buddy Carlyle?) so, I'm not calling the kettle black, believe me. The bullpen is great, with Wagner easily being the best closer in the division, if not the whole National League -- always steady (and always very short). The rest of the bullpen is solid -- Heilman and Schoeneweiss are the quintessential set-up guys and young Joe Smith showed a lot of potential last year. Jorge Houdini Sosa is comical -- already up to his old tricks (last game: 3 IP, 3 hits, 2 walks, no runs -- jerk).

As for the offense, there's no need to discuss David Wright -- we get it, he's awesome. Not like a "made-up-by-the-media-because-he's-in-New York-awesome," but awesome in a .416 OBP with 30 HRs at age 24 way. Jose Reyes is the type of player I kind of hate -- fast, always wiggling his bat, and getting dirty because he's got real "heart and grit (aka not real talent)." However, Jose Reyes is not David Eckstein, as his 78 stolen bases shows, in comparison to only 21 times he was caught stealing. Honestly, every time he is up to bat, I'm kind of scared he is going to get on base, even though he only had an OBP of .354 last year. Again, like Wright, he is only 25, so, there's a lot more to go. And what can be said about Carlos Beltran that isn't generic? He's a shoe-in for 30 HRs and 100 RBIs every year (except 2005, apparently), and with Wright and Reyes above him, he's going to see pitches he likes.

But the rest of the offense? Carlos Delgado was forged in the fiery inferno of creation -- I don't think he has that much left in him. Brian Schneider has never hit above .268 in a whole season. Luis Castillo is one of those "real heart and grit (aka not real talent)" type of players -- fear his .350 slugging! (OK, that's kind of mean, he does have a career OBP of .368). Ryan Church and Angel Pagan form a corner outfield of former prospects who were given a lot of opportunities -- to suck. Seriously, when you're picking up the Natspos and Cubs failed players, and starting them, you're in a bad spot.

Overall, the Mutts are a conundrum. In the positions that they are good, they have some of the best in all of baseball (Santana, Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Wagner). Where they're bad, they're really bad (4th/5th starters, bottom of the order). Can that balance win the NL East? Of course it can and, with the addition of Santana, they have to be the favorites since once every five days, they're going to be hard as hell to beat. However, their competition is still very stiff from both the Local Heroes and the...

PHANTASICALLY PHRIGHTFUL PHILLIES:
I'm sure I'm the only person to use the "ph" alliteration when talking about the Phillies, right?

Like the Mutts, I wanted to talk about their pitching first, but... really? Outside of Cole Hamels, who really is that good (nearly a K an inning last year, age 23), there's not a single pitcher on that team who scares me, starter or reliever. If Carlos Delgado is old, Jaime Moyer is time itself. I guess Kyle Kendrick has some potential (he is 23), but, he was incredibly erratic last year -- and I don't think you want the #3 starter on a team with playoff bound expectations learning the strike zone as he goes. Brett Myers is (insert a joke about him being a wife beater), but, more importantly, the owner of a career 4.34 ERA -- not exactly the ace they need. Who knows if Brade Lidge will ever be healthy and/or good, but what we do know is Tom Gordon will never be back to his Yankee days. Hey, at least they got Rudy Seanez so Jaime Moyer can have someone to recollect the Great Flood with.

But that offense -- Jesus. Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley form a trio that constitute three of the best players in the game, and easily the best offense in the division, if not the entire National League (Tigers probably take the cake for all of baseball). Howard hit 47 homes runs in 144 games last year, Utley drove in 103 RBIs and missed a month, and Rollins had 94 RBIs -- in the lead-off spot and has missed 8 games in the last three years. However, unlike the Mutts, they have a lot of depth outside of their top three. Make fun of him as you will, but Pat the Bat is basically a shoe-in for 30 HRs and 100 RBIs every year (though, it's about as empty a 30/100 as you'll get, though, he does walk more than people give him credit for). Shane Victorino exploded on the scene last year with a ridiculous 37-for-41 stealing bases. Geoff Jenkins, an import from Milwaukee, will platoon with Jayson Werth, which should give him so additional life since he hits lefties as well as I do -- however, he could easily hit 25 homeruns, as he did during his peak with the Brewers. Thirdbaseman Pedro Feliz is not good at all (no, seriously, he sucks) and catcher Carlos Ruiz is, you know, a catcher -- they can't all be Brian McCann!

The Phillies are interesting, very reminiscent of the Texas Rangers from a few years ago -- all offense, no pitching. However, that's not really fair because Rollins/Utley/Howard are all significantly better than the Rangers were. I also admit I could easily be sleeping on their pitching: maybe this will be the year Meyers gets it all together or maybe Cole Hamels will take the leap (which is certainly possible -- he's only 24!) and win 18 games. However, I know that offense will keep them in the race right until the end.

THE REST:
Not a deep analysis on the Natspos or Fish since they really aren't threat to win the division, however, it should be noted that they can not be slept on -- they will not be easy wins for anyone. Both their problems are pitching -- the Natspos threw Odalis Perez (SIGH) as their opening day starter and the Fish tried to one-up then by throwing out Scott Olsen. However, both teams have a lot of potential and are very well managed (especially with Manny Acta on the Natspos) and boast offenses that are deceptively good. Local hero Ryan Zimmerman and a healthy Nick Johnson form a very potent back-to-back for the Natspos and Hanley Ramirez for the Fish could easily be the best player in the National League. Also, Uggla/Willingham/Jacobs are all players who could be starting on much better teams, all potential to hit 20-25 HRs. Both teams have solid closers (Cordero on the Natspos and Gregg on the Fish), which means they're going to get all their saves against us, since the Braves never hit semi-decent relief pitching (prove me wrong, guys!). I know it's shameful to compare these two teams and say they're so similar, but, this is already long enough. However, trust me -- neither of these teams are as bad as ESPN "analysts" says they are and both could win 70-75 games (with the Natspos having a better shot than the Fish), though, I wouldn't put money on it.

PREDICTION:
Sorry, I'm not going do it. Seriously, it's too hard to tell and I don't want to jinx the Braves. I honestly don't know who is the best team in this division. I just know it's going to be very, very competitive. If you live and die with every game, this is not going to be a very fun year, however, if you're a fan of great baseball games, this is going to be a good one...

Links

Welcome, Drew(fus). Glad to have you in the fold.

Hawks

1. Horford says he tipped the infamous inbounds.
2. Zapruder picture of tip in question in the Hawksquawk forum.
3. Important site to bookmark for the upcoming campaign season.

Braves

1. Sigh. Hampton is a joke, Braves lose, Resop can play left field but can't pitch.

   "Resop was an outfielder [at the beginning of his minor-league career], so it was no big deal," Cox said of the pitching move."

   Yeah, but that doesn't mean he can pitch.
2. R-Braves play final year in Richmond, prepare to completely rip off Gwinnett county, courtesy of gullible, inept politicians.
3. Mark Teixeira always starts slow. Relax, baby.

• Career BA   OBP   SLG   OPS

• March/April: .251  .349  .435  .784

• Total: .286  .371  .539  .910
  

4. Sleeping with the enemy (SWTE): Head over to Metstradamus for the other perspective during the upcoming series (and season).

   "And now here's the worst part: Pedro Martinez is injured while Mike Hampton is healthy."

   That was April 2. Wonderful.

Falcons

1. Follow a reader vote draft countdown and get drunk on Falcohol here.
   
2. Pat Yasinskas has a funny name AND wrote a column about the Falcons, mainly our new coach, Mike Smith, which is not a funny name.
   
3. Steve Wyche non-story saying nobody has offered a trade for our 3rd pick.
   
4. Meaningless preseason schedule released.
   

Georgia Tech

1. Interesting Dennis Dodd article on Paul Johnson (must read).
   
2. D.J. Donley transferred to Perdue. James Johnson quit, explained.
3. Georgia Tech Sports Blog with a story and some commentary on incoming basketball recruit Iman Shumpert, who seems like a good kid.

1-3, 158 games to go

I don't really want to talk about the Braves. I'm sure bonitis (ed.) will come here later and go on a long diatribe about how Royce Ring's groundball to flyout ratio is at least three points from his regressive mean or how Chipper Jones's Isolated Patience is sure to increase by at least a factor of two any time now. Or something to make it not sound as bad as it is.

Here's the thing: it's not bad. At all. It's four games into a very, very long season. I was shocked to turn on ESPN today to see them talking about what's wrong with the Tigers? Um, the lost three games in a row? And you know what? They're probably going to do it again. It's the first week of the season, teams are still adjusting their rosters, still getting used to not drinking beer in the middle of the afternoon, and still adjusting to steroid withdrawal. Baseball is such a sport of aberration -- an unlucky bounce here, a low pitch there, or a Manny Acosta sighting and a sure thing becomes a loss. That's the point of a one run game -- they're so frustrating that you begin to second guess everything. And when we finally come back and win a few of them (which, I promise, will happen), we'll talk about the lucky breaks instead of the unlucky ones.

Of course I'm unhappy we lose a series to the Pirates of all teams, a team that is right up there with the Orioles in what appears to be a collective effort to suck really bad. And an opening loss to Washington hurts, too. But, it's such a long season. The only thing we can be sure of is that Mike Hampton is never, EVER going to pitch. That's it. By tomorrow, this will all be yesterday's news... until the Mets come to town. The beauty of baseball is that there is an opportunity for redemption almost every night -- and the problem of baseball is that is an opportunity for a soul-crushing defeat almost every night. Hopefully we'll inflate to the mean.

Oh, and I had a Zalad for the first time the other day. Quite delicious. The right mix of greens, carrots, and chicken tenders. Of course, with the fried chicken strips and fatty dressing, I'm not sure how healthy it was, but that's a salad for you -- tries to pass itself off for something good, but inevitability corrupted in the end. A life metaphor? No.

Here we go again...

Hawks 127, Raptors 120

I'm going to use this game as an impetus to delve into some of the topics I've been meaning to write about. This was obviously a huge win (for now), but we can celebrate the good parts later. There were so many aspects of this game we've seen over and over again this season.

Inability to Defend PG's

TJ Ford cut up the lane like warm butter, and a slumping Calderon dished out 10 assists. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of the Bibby trade (an amaziing 26-12-6 tonight, with that RIDICULOUS 3pt at the end of the 4th. Was that really the best defense TJ Ford had to offer??), but the fella can't play defense. Our PG defense has been lackluster all year (and the year before that and before that and before that...), but it's actually gotten worse since the trade. Though it's not my favorite statistic, John Hollinger's PER is very solid and provides a good baseline for comparing players. If you're unfamiliar: explanation here, current league leaders here. The league average is set to 15, but I'm mostly going to be talking about net PER. The following numbers show Atlanta's net production at each position, meaning Hawks player PER/48 min - Opponent player PER/48 min.

• PG -4.2
  
• SG +3.1
  
• SF +0.4
  
• PF +1.5
  
• C -3.1

I doubt any Hawks fan is surprised that we fare worst at PG and C. At this time, I'm just going to focus on our PG play.

Player, PER, opponent PER, net (only for time played with Atlanta)

• Anthony Johnson, 13.7, 14.6, -0.9
• Tyronn Lue, 14.4, 15.0, -0.6
• Acie Law, 7.0, 19.1, -12.1 (ouch)
• Mike Bibby, 17.1, 19.6, -2.6

Surprisingly, AJ and TLue played good enough defense to balance their mediocre offensive contribution. A-Claw IV's numbers are atrocious, but I'm going to blame injuries and Mike "Point-guards-can-develop-by-playing-four-minutes-a-night" Woodson for that. Bibby's offense rates above the league average, but he's been getting lit up on defense. Both his offensive and defensive numbers have improved lately, so hopefully it has a lot to do with getting a feel for the "system." I reiterate that I'd much rather have Bibby than AJ or Lue, but allowing PG's to put up a PER of 19.6 is pretty bad. It's easy to try to shift blame from Bibby. Maybe it's the coach or the small sample size. How'd he do in Sacremento this year?

• Mike Bibby, 16.7, 20.5, -3.8

Oh... Well, he was injured, right? Okay, okay, his defense is terrible. Who am I kidding? You can see it on the floor. He's older, slower, and hobbled. I'm gonna cut him a little slack anyways.

Team defense is especially important when facing good point guards. How do we defend the high pick and roll? I'd say poorly. How about our non-JSmoove help defense? Absent. Do you believe that our coach develops a good defensive scheme? I don't. Our defense has gone way downhill since Bibby got here, but he can't be completely blamed for, say, giving up 109 to the Knicks.

If we end up facing Boston in the first round (somehow we're closer to 5th place than 9th place now), this won't be that big a deal. Rajon Rondo is pretty solid, but that's not who I will be fearing in that series. Quick, penetrating guards abuse the slow-footed Bibby the most, so just be glad we probably won't bet seeing Tony Parker, Chris Paul (sigh), or TJ Ford.

Joe Johnson 40.9 mpg

Joe is second in the NBA in mpg this year, behind AI (41.9). Last year's spring "injury" notwithstanding, Joe is basically superman. I keep waiting for him to show major signs of fatigue, but he doesn't. After months of this, he plays his best in March, winning the much-deserved POM award. Still, I'm terrified. I can't see how he'll have anything left in the tank come playoffs. The heavy minutes are obviously not limited to Joe. Our top 6 are logging ridiculous minutes right now. I know our spot has never been secure, so I'm not suggesting we bench our starters. But come on, Woody, is this the best player management you can do? Aside from the occasional Zaza good game (more frequent lately) and 3 minute bursts of good Acie play, nobody beyond sixth man JChill has contributed squat recently. I think Acie and Zaza are good players who can contribute consistently. They have a lot more to offer, but I think Woody wastes their skills.

And why does he refuse to feed us a steady diet of Salami? Yes, Woody, you hate Salim. "He shoots too much. He's short. He's not Joe Johnson." Give him consistent playing time (10 mpg ain't much!) and he can provide consistent shooting. He has not been especially consistent, but what do you expect when his playing time is sporadic at best? I'm still amazed at how the "mini microwave" can come in every 25 games or so and still provide instant offense. He can put up more points than minutes!

That's just one rant for one player. We could go on. Don't even get me started on big Al. Woodson is terrified of missing the playoffs. If we don't go, he gets fired (well, he should). He also has no trust in his players, probably because he can't develop poop from the digested food in his colon, let alone a productive bench player from a somewhat talented cast (what?). His consistent benching of Horford is ridiculous. His refusal to use all his assets is running Joe and Bibby into the ground, consequently endangering the slim, slim chance we have of succeeding in the postseason.

Even though our collapses have been going on all year, I'm confident that fatigue plays a big role in our frequent come-from-ahead losses. How many times have we built a large lead early and blown it like Chloë Sevigny? More than once, I say! That didn't really happen tonight, but we did go from being up 10, to being up 4 at the end of the 1st, to being down 17 in the third! Then, to my amazement, we battled back and won in OT. Hats off to the guys for scraping the win out. I'm amazed they had it in them. Our last possession in regulation was decidedly anti-Hawk. In countless games this year, we've given up offensive rebound after offensive rebound on that last crucial possession. It was nice to have see that reversal. Three 3pt attempts in 15 seconds, with the worst shot of them all going in. I'll take it. We also had something else working in our favor...

Talking 'bout Protest

Anybody who saw the game knows the Raptors should've won. There was the 17 point lead. Their offensive rebound with 17 seconds left, which Delfino stupidly dribbled instead of holding onto. The multiple shot attempts they gave us during our last possession. And, of course, the layup TJ Ford made that didn't count. With the game tied 107-107 and 0.5 seconds left, an inbounds lob to a cutting TJ Ford resulted in the game-winning layup...until the refs revoked it.

First of all, that was pathetic defense. How can that happen with 0.5 seconds left? I can understand a little room because we weren't expecting a lob to the shortest player on the floor. But, come on! That much space? Really? If you didn't see it, he was WIDE open. It was ridiculous. You get the point. Ridiculous


The officials ruled the basket good, but took away the points after they reviewed it. They were correct in saying the ball was still in his hand when time expired. However, the time clearly started before TJ touched the ball, and the clock would not have struck zero if the timer was started correctly. Word is the Raptors are seriously considering protesting the game. Fortunately, nobody involved with the Hawks made the error. One of the referees was actually responsible for starting the clock with a remote (Eric Davis?), so it was the officials' fault. Since it was essentially a bad call by a ref, I doubt Fuhrer Stern will overturn the victory. I understand the non-Shaq Shaq replay, since our scorekeeper unintentionally cheated. Granting a protest for a referee mistake is a whole 'nother story, and I doubt the NBA wants to open up that road. If they do, there will be a lot of angry people in Atlanta. Since this loss moved the Raptors into a three way tie for 5th/6th/7th, there are probably a lot of angry people in Toronto, but that's in Canada, so who cares?

There were a few more things I was going to talk about, but I'll already gone longer than I wanted, so I'll save it for another day. Coming soon -- a few Braves predictions.